Long Ago and Not True Anyway

Issue blogging again

2010-04-25T23:03:00.001+12:00

[Update to last post]. No longer in the blog free job, I now have a new blog on things international development here: http://waylaiddialectic.wordpress.com/

Blog-gone

2008-07-13T15:43:00.006+12:00

I'm changing jobs and the new one would appear to preclude political blogging. So, for the time being, this blog is going to have a breather.

I've got a new blog set up on Wordpress to talk travel, arthritis, hearts and random stuff. It is:

http://wandermythoughts.wordpress.com/

(note the word MY in there, an annoying concession to the fact that someone already thought of Wandering Thoughts).

Thanks to everyone who has read this blog and commented from time to time. Sorry to Matt who I owe a couple of posts.

For what it's worth, below are some of my favourite posts...

Development as Explained By 2 Cows in a Field
Turtles Can Fly - review
Why Treasury’s Got it Wrong on Tax Cuts
What’s the Matter with Libertarianism?
Raging Against Modernity
Trying to Muddle Through: Living (and Learning) with Disease
A Simple (but resilient) Definition of Power
An Ideological and Intellectual Wallace Line
My very own*, very succinct, definition of social capital
My very own, very succinct...
Gore's Law
Freedom of Speach and its Discontents

And, primarily because I still suffer from an addiction to Excel, here's some blog stats graphed (click on the graph to see it more clearly).

Development: what's the point?

2008-07-11T20:54:00.002+12:00

Over the space of a couple of weeks in 1996 I travelled between two extremes of the public transport spectrum. At one end were the busses of rural Sumbawa – grumpy, diesel-spitting creatures that lurched their way around potholes taking interminable amounts of time to get anywhere, let alone their destination. As a means of transport they were inclusive though. Want to take your surfboard? no problem. Want to travel with freshly caught fish? fine. Want to move your goat – trussed up and still trying to kick? just pay your fare. And if the bus ever got full, you were invited to sit on the roof.

At the other end of the spectrum was the London Underground. Trains were frequent and – despite everyone’s complaints – mostly on time. You could only travel with surfboards off peak and, though I never tested the hypothesis, I suspect goats and fish were prohibited outright. Yet the tube got you where you wanted and it got you there quick. It was safe, efficient and no one ever asked you to ride on the roof. Compared to the bus riders of Sumbawa, all but the poorest travellers on the London Underground were wildly wealthy too. And healthy: no Malaria, nor cholera, nor typhoid; life expectancies in the mid 70s. Almost all of them were literate and many could expect to travel overseas. They got to elect their leaders (something denied to Indonesians during the Suharto years) and their human rights were reasonably well safeguarded.

And yet they were miserable. Or, at least, they appeared that way. Silent, pale, staring at their shoes. The Sumbawan bus travellers, on the other hand, were full of cheer. The bus rang loud with talk and laughter, and delays which would have driven Londoners to apoplexy were cheerfully dismissed.

For a long time contrast between these two scenes led me to question the very merits of development itself. If London was wealthy but glum and Sumbawa poor but happy, then maybe we should abandon development and all aim to live like the Sumbawanese. Over the years I engaged in plenty of this anti-development thinking. It’s common currency on the backpack trail and surprisingly prevalent amongst some sectors of the development community too.

It is also mistaken. My own error was to compare two snapshots of life that were both subtly different but also not representative. At least part of the boisterousness of the Sumbawan busses came from the fact that most everyone knew each other. On the Underground people are silent because they are among strangers. Of course, if Sumbawanese and Londoners lived their lives as they travelled (amongst companions in the case of the former; isolated and alone in the case of the later), this would be a real issue. And it is certainly easier to end up lonely in a large city than a small village, but London is hardly atomised – you only have to go into any bar, or restaurant, or football stadium to see people interacting amongst friends.

And, of course, a bus ride is not someone’s life. What I didn’t see on those buses were the dirt floors of people’s houses, or the absence of running water. Nor did I feel the anguish of loosing a child to Malaria, or the pangs of hunger at the end of the dry season, or the anxiety of living with only the barest social safety net. I didn’t feel the frustration of being unable to afford basic medicines or of having to deal with corrupt officials. On the other hand, much of what London has to offer – comfort, food, the NHS – I have had all my life. So I took it for granted.

None of this is to say, of course, that London is all good, or that village life in Sumbawa has no merits. All I’m saying is that the modern misery / happy poverty dichotomy, and its variants – views held by a considerable number of people – are wrong.

In other words, there is such a thing as Development, and it matters. Countries can be better or worse places to live and, taken as a whole, for the majority of their people, the best places to live aren’t those with per capita incomes of a few hundred dollars per year.

To say something exists and that it matters is not, of course, the same as saying that it is straight forwards or even that it can be easily defined. One has only to look at the many very real problems of London to realise that development can’t possibly be a nice linear journey from rural Sumbawa to the South-East of England.

So what is development? Let’s start with its purpose.

As a Utilitarian I believe that the purpose of politics – and, it follows, development – should be to increase happiness/wellbeing in a manner that is, ultimately, sustainable. Utilitarianism is far from a perfect political philosophy so I’m open to being dissuaded from it, but the very first question I would want answered from anyone trying to do this is, would your alternative end-goal for development really be worth holding if it made people’s lives more rather than less miserable? Personally, I can’t think of any principal I would want societies to cling to if it could be shown that it consistently, across time, made life less happy. You can argue that your alternative purpose won’t suffer this problem; that it won’t make people worse off. But by doing this you are tacitly admitting that your purpose is a second order one. That it is worthy for it what it might do for people’s wellbeing rather than for any intrinsic value of its own.

At a practical level, because suffering is so my easier to define and identify than wellbeing or happiness, it makes sense to me that the purpose of development (as practiced) should be to increase wellbeing by focusing on the reduction of suffering.

So if we know what we want from development, can we also paint a rough picture of its essential ingredients? Those things that with distinguish more developed countries and communities from less? Simon very wisely argues for some flexibility – good development will look different in different places. I think, though, that – despite the importance of context – we can lay down some universal ground rules.

The first being the protection of human rights. It might seem strange that a utilitarian would put human rights up front. After all, didn’t the founding utilitarian, Jeremy Bentham, refer to the French revolutionaries’ talk of inalienable rights as ‘nonsense on stilts?’ (Surely, one of the best phrased insults in the history of political philosophy). Bentham’s critique though, at least as I understand it, of rights for rights sake – rights because they are given to us by god, or by virtue of us being human beings – and, even if wellbeing is your central concern, then rights remain important. Not because of some intrinsic worth of their own but simply because history has shown us time and time again that when they are grossly violated suffering ensues. Think Rwanda, or the Holocaust, or the Gulag. It follows then that countries that protect and promote their citizen’s rights will be less likely to experience suffering.

Suffering also clusters around extreme poverty. So the second essential ingredient of development is the reduction of extreme poverty, followed by the reduction in poverty in general. There’s not space here in this blog post to explain Amartya Sen’s capabilities approach to poverty but I do want to emphasise that the reduction of poverty is not the same as merely increasing one’s wealth. Wealth is an important component, but it needs to be set amongst others, including increasing the meaningful choices that people have in their lives. We want to reduce poverty of opportunity as well as material poverty

The third essential ingredient for development will be the protection of the environment. Despite all the advances of technology we humans remain dependent on the world we live in – and if we destroy it suffering will follow. In saying this, I’m not arguing for extreme sustainability that prohibits any environmental destruction but rather that we don’t damage the environment in a way that either significantly harms us now or which bequeaths a mess to future generations. (As a tangential point, where it is in any way avoidable, I’m also against irreversible environmental damage such as species extinction).

Finally, development needs to provide space all those other, less-quantifiable things that matter to human beings – social interaction, opportunities to have fun, a sense of meaning in one’s life.

It all sounds so simple on paper doesn’t it? But that sad fact is that for the vast majority of people living on our planet at present, development remains a long way off. Even so-called developed countries have problems sufficient to suggest that the very term ‘developed country’ has arrived prematurely. All of which begs the question, why are we still so far away from living in a developed world? That, time permitting, is the subject of another post.

Paul Krugman

2008-07-11T20:33:00.002+12:00

If you're interested (and I won't blame you if you're not) I have a review of Paul Krugman's Conscience of a Liberal up at the Scoop Review of Books.

Pick Me! Pick Me! Me! Me! me me meme

2008-07-04T20:15:00.004+12:00

Cool. Thanks to George, and the fact that my co-blogger Oliver is having an existential crisis at present, I get to answer my first ever internet meme.

What was I doing 10 years ago?

Following my heart and living in Long Island

Five snacks I enjoy in a perfect, non weight-gaining world

I live in that world. I mean I really have to try to put on weight. So...chocolate cake , proper pizza, cheese cake, the first good nectarine of a summer, and fejoas!

Five things I would do if I were a billionaire:

Launch a speculative raid on a the Rai. Mwah ha ha.

Or, if I wasn't feeling evil, I'd set up a trust to fund a decent left leaning New Zealand newspaper or magazine. And with the change, I would fund research and work on ways of improving governance, protecting human rights and reducing extreme poverty.

Three of my habits:

Worrying, not rinsing dishes, a powerful fear of telephones.

Five jobs that I have had:

NGO researcher, writer etc...
University Researcher
Writer (kind of)
Reporting analyst
Assistant public transport planner

Five places I have lived:

Long Island
London
Sydney
Madeira
Wellington

Five things ~~to do today~~ I did yesterday:

Rescued a weta from the shower (why do they always run off the paper and up your arm?)
Agonised over buying ties.
Drilled myself a very smart tie-holder.
Filled out a tax return.
Started another blog.

Five people I want to get to know more about:

Rawls, Tony Judt, Samantha Power, John Kenneth Galbraith and Jurgen Habermas (or, at least, I'd like to know more about what they know).

People to tag:

I'm pretty sure that (once you subtract George and Nikki, who have already responded to the meme) there aren't five people who actually read this blog...so I think I might be tagging into space.

Interesting

2008-07-01T14:14:00.001+12:00

Failed states and reconstruction failures in their wake.

Simply Because

2008-07-01T09:29:00.002+12:00

Simply because, like most everyone else who lives in the suburbs, I secretly long to be a cowboy...

Our leaders will save us...

2008-06-29T20:37:00.002+12:00

...Johann Hari thinks not. (And I only partially agree, but that's the subject of another post).

Southerly Storm Blogging!

2008-06-29T18:18:00.005+12:00

I have a soft spot for southerly storms. I grew up in Eastbourne, deep inside Wellington harbour, where for me and my teenage friends southerly storms were the main source of surf. Storms meant hail and blistering white-squalls but they also meant waves. And, as surf crazed kids, that was what mattered.

We would watch weather maps and hope. We would gaze south out of classroom windows and wait, our eyes scanning for the first clouds of the cold front. Anticipation would build all day with the rising gale.

We would talk loud on the bus home, everyone wondering why such miserable weather made us so happy. We would change into torn hand-me-down wetsuits in the shelter of battered Pohutukawa. And we wold run, jubilant, through the stinging sand into the sea.

I don't surf in storms so often now, but residual excitement remains. For this I'm lucky. What other emotion could better accompany days when the waves close Cook Strait, and snow starts to fall on the hills east and north of town?

And so, this evening, as dusk thickened the sky, tired and frustrated from a day of trying to write, I donned the raincoat I brought when I went to Greenland, and ventured out amongst it.

First I climbed to the top of the hill at the end of our road. On fine days it affords views across the south coast. But this evening I could hardly keep my feet let alone take in the view. I actually crawled to the summit such was my fear of being blown over. I then clasped onto the small trig that stands there and looked out to sea, my eyes stung by rain. Out in the Strait the wind tore white strips from the water. Waves met their end on the rocks, their explosions of spray mixing with the rain.

I didn't last long before retreating in an awkward gale-assisted stumble. From there I walked my regular road loop. Sheltered by houses for the most part I could hear the storm everywhere. Tormenting powerlines and coaxing trees into roaring song. As the daylight faded streetlights began to map out the suburbs.

By the time I got home the sky was dark, dark grey except for two pale strips in the western sky where the cloud was less thick and maybe the storm less intense.

I stopped for a moment breathing in the smell of smoke from someone's wood fire and then hurried in out of the rain.

Abortion

2008-06-29T09:40:00.006+12:00

Maybe it's just because it gives the fundies another opportunity to exert their disproportionate influence in this country. Maybe it's simply the reminder of how misogynistic we still are. Maybe it's because rhetoric will quickly crowd out facts - again.

But the rekindling of the whole abortion debate just depresses me. And this is in spite of the fact that the most likely outcome, I think, will be that our law ends up more sensible - with a social clause along with the mental health one in the appropriate statute.

Anyhow, the issue was covered - fairly poorly? - in Insight on Radio National this morning (link to audio and will break eventually). Afterwards I send them the following email.

Dear Chris,

Absent from your discussion on abortion this morning was one key point.

A recent, comprehensive, survey conducted by the World Health Organisation and the Guttmacher Institute found that abortion rates vary little between parts of the world where the procedure is legal and those where it is not. It is surprising, given this fact, that those who see abortion as morally wrong do not do more to concentrate on non-legal and effective means, such as sexuality education and contraception, to reduce its incidence.

At the same time illegal and unsafe abortions lead to the deaths of over 70,000 women every year.

It surprises me that an organisation which calls itself Right to Life would want to bring this problem to New Zealand.

Kind Regards

Terence

On re-reading I was worried that this email would suggest that abortion is morally wrong and that my only quibble with Right to Life is how best to reduce its frequency.

So I thought I'd expand things here.

Like Deborah I'm sceptical of rights claims made in an absolute sense. I support human rights not because I think they are God-given or afforded to us simply by virtue of being human but rather because they provide us with a sound framework for reducing suffering and increasing wellbeing. I'm a (sortof) rule utilitarian who thinks that rights, when well-thought out, are very important rules.

Having said all this, much of my thinking (in other words: much of my muddling through within my own head) on abortion has been in terms of rights (rather than some sort of crude utilitarian calculus which is kind of what is going on in my email above). Which is fine, although to be consistent at some point of time I should pin these rights back to wellbeing, but that won't be today. So, in addition to my standard disclaimer (IANAPNAE - I am not a philosopher nor an economist - just someone who worries about things) I should add that my thinking here is incomplete.

But here goes...

Should abortion be legal?

In answering this I want to start with two positions which I think can't be correct. 1. That a woman has an unconstrained right to do what she wants with her body and 2. That, from the moment of conception, the fetus has a full set of human rights, equal to its mother's.

The first position flounders in the same way that libertarian arguments for absolute self-ownership do. I can't have absolute control of my body because in doing so I can violate your control over your body. Quite rightly our society prohibits me from using my body to do violence to others. Likewise it prohibits me from putting my body behind the wheel of a car and driving drunk. Obviously, despite this, I maintain considerable rights over what I may do with, and what may happen to my body, but they aren't absolute. To an extent, my rights are constrained by the impacts of my actions on the rights of others.

Which means that, if we can show that fetuses are entitled to full human rights we're going to want to do our best to eliminate abortion*. But should fetuses be entitled to full human rights (position 2 above)?

To me such a position seems acutely counter-intuitive. If you choose the moment of conception as the moment where a full set of rights are bestowed you are effectively granting equal rights to a collection of cells who may someday become a recognisable person, over the needs of an actual living woman. And these needs, when we consider the medical risks of pregnancy, not to mention the impact on the life of the woman in question are not insignificant.

Similarly, seeing as you have declared the fetus as having equal rights as its mother then, to be internally consistent, you must also ban abortions where there is a risk that the mother may die giving birth (certainty of the fetus's death versus probability of the mother's). All this despite the fact that what we are talking about here is a few cells that are in no way recognisably human. (True they may come to be recognisably human in time, but as you have decided to convey full human rights from conception you need to explain why they apply to the entity that exists the moment after conception).

If you want to see how ugly rights at conception are in practice have a read of the following article on El Salvador in the New York Times.

So if both the first position (that a woman has absolute rights) and the second (that a fetus has the exact same set of rights as a full human being) are wrong, then what is the alternative.

To me, at least, it makes sense to do the following.

1. Deal with the issue as one of competing rights sets. So a pregnant woman (like everyone else in society) does not a have absolute rights over her body and, in the case of abortion in particular, her rights need to be weighed up against those rights that we give to a fetus.

2. (And this is the important bit). The rights of an entity change as an entity changes across it's existence. There's no need to worry about 'big bang' moments such as when human-hood starts (which is going to be hard to pin down, I think). Just worry about when entity X has a sufficiently significant rights-set for these rights to restrict the actions of entity Y.

If it sounds strange for me to advise not getting caught up in when human-hood starts consider the following. Not all human beings have the same rights. This may seem appalling but it's just a statement of fact. We don't afford babies the right to vote, or children the right to choose where they live. We force teenagers to stay in school, but we don't force adults to stay in work. And so on... Of course we do afford all living human beings some core rights (not to be murdered, for example**) But the central point is that there is already a perfectly reasonable precedent set here - that people's rights sets change as they change.

And so what's left for us to decide is when does the developing fetus develop sufficient rights for these rights to prohibit its mother from having abortion? The short answer to this is never. Or, at least, its rights are never so significant that they should stop a woman from having an abortion when carrying the pregnancy to term would put her life in real danger. We don't legally oblige men to leap into burning buildings to save their children when doing so would be a risk to themselves (not even in El Salvador). Why should we compel women to take the same risks for a fetus? Of course we do compel parents to take due care of their children, when this doesn't involve risking their lives and, similarly, we are right, I think, prevent abortions in non-life threatening situations for a fetus close to term.

But we would be wrong to prohibit abortions in non-life threatening circumstances right from the moment of conception. We would be wrong in doing this because, even when we aren't talking about a life threatening pregnancy, having a baby is something that will have massive consequences for the woman involved and as an actual living individual her right to have control over something as significant as this takes precedence over those rights that the fetus has developed.

At some point in time this balance changes of course, and then the some of the fetus's rights (like the right to a chance at life) take precedence over some of hers (the choice about pregnancy in non-life threatening circumstances, in particular). For a variety of practical and biological reasons (the subject for another post maybe) sometime around viability seems like the best time for this switch.

For now though, I want to make one final point, this is that the whole idea of competing rights sets (and the idea that fetuses are in the process of acquiring rights) does mean that, while I support the legal provision of abortion, I have a strong preference for preventing unplanned pregnancies in the first place. And I would definitely prefer to live in a country that taxed its wealthy more and used the money to provide people with decent sexuality education and which did more to encourage contraceptive use and so on...

Ok - that was my first attempt to write down the product of an internal ongoing conversation I've been having about all this. I don't know if it worked, but I do know that I want to get outside and catch some Southerly Storm in Cook Strait. So enough for now.

_____________________________________________________________
*Which, of course, doesn't necessarily mean outlawing it as laws aren't always the best way to achieve societal ends.
** Except in cases of the death penalty which I oppose and self defence, which seems more reasonable.

Anti-Capitalism, Distopia and the Absense of the State

2008-06-26T19:45:00.008+12:00

Once, in the days before this blog, I ended up in an email argument with an economics professor. My reward for daring to ponder the political impacts of trade liberalisation was a diagnosis. I suffered, I was told, from a latent hostility to capitalism. The only cure, apparently, was a regular dose of Hayek and Freidman.

Now I've spent a fair bit of time with doctors over the years and been told some pretty strange things about my auto-destructing body. So I'm well aware that it's natural, when on the receiving end of bad medical news, to think "no! that's not right! that's not me!" But, even taking this into account, I still think he was off the mark.

Certainly his prescription seemed unlikely to cure me of anything. Hayek and Freidman are very smart and Hayek not quite the libertarian his followers claim, but their utopian vision of unfettered markets strikes me now, as it did then, as completely unconvincing.

On the other hand, the social democracy of economists as diverse as Paul Krugman and John Kenneth Galbraith, seems like a capitalism that could and, indeed, almost does, work.

Krugman also has the best argument in capitalism's favour that I've read. This is simply a paraphrase of Churchill. Capitalism is "the worst system we've tried except every other system we've ever tried". Private property and markets, tempered by democracy and the welfare state aren't always pretty but we've lived through an awfully ugly century and maybe it's time to settle for second best.

And yet: "ever tried" and "might ever try" are two completely different things. So, at the same time time, I'm still interested in alternatives even if I'm not convinced that they exist.

In this fascinating paper on utopias and the left Erik Olin Wright provides an excellent system for evaluating leftwing alternatives to the status quo.

We should evaluate utopian projects he argues in terms of desirability, viability and achievablility.

Desirability - is the proposed world one we'd really want to live in an ethical sense?
Viability - could the proposed world ever actually work?
Achievability - could we get there from here?

One alternative to capitalism that has been proposed but never put into practice over long periods of time on a large scale (and which, therefore, emerges unscathed from the last 100 years) is Anarchism.

Anarchism certainly, I think, passes the desirability test; in an ethical sense a world free of coercion and held together by cooperation sounds beautiful, if it could work.

But could it? Is it, to use Wright's terms, viable? Maybe, if you believe in entirely altruistic human beings, but I don't. I don't believe in the opposite either (in the solely self-interested individuals of some economic theory). But surely there's enough self-interest in our psyches to necessitate some formalised coercion to prevent injustice? Maybe we could call this instrument of coercion something other than the state but that's what it would be.

One counter argument I've heard is that an anarchist world would also be a localist one. In it we would all live in units small enough that our impulse to care for our neighbours would be sufficient to hold society together. And maybe it would. But units that small, unless they traded heavily, would also be deprived of all the economic benefits scale and specialisation can bring. We might, in other words, be wealthy ethically, but materially we would be dirt poor. Maybe, then these communities could trade together? But who would regulate such trade? who would make sure it was fair? The state?

Finally, we have the issue of achievability. Even if such a world could work, could we ever create it from the one we have at present? This isn't an issue just for anarchism of course, but any major reforms, including plenty I am in favour of. And Wright's thoughts on achievability, and its relationship to viability are definitely worth reading.

Now in saying all this I am most definitely not attacking anarchists. All the anarchists I've met (admittedly a small sub group) have been kind, smart, committed people. I'm also aware in writing this that I'm no expert on anarchism so it may well be the case that I'm missing something. And I know my objections above aren't new, so maybe there are some good counter arguments. If this is the case I'd be really interested in reading about them.

Finally, I do think that there are some important insights in some anarchist thought, too. Particularly about the de-hierarchialisation of power. Insights which could provide all sorts of ideas for deepening democracy, if not actually replacing capitalism. Those thoughts, though, are for another post.

She'll be Right

2008-06-22T20:59:00.006+12:00

They call him the Professor, although he's not an academic as far as I'm aware. In the world of Wellington surfing even something as simple as the ability to read a weather map can garner you a reputation for bookishness and a moniker to match.

He's a slightly portly, balding middle aged man who rides a boogie board and the first time we met we didn't get off to a great start. We were surfing my regular spot when a wave came through. In all fairness it was probably his, but I hadn't had a wave for a while so I tried to nab it off him. I was the regular, I figured it was mine. He figured it was his. And quite some grumpiness and nasty stares ensued.

Did I ever tell you that I can be a dork in the surf?

It could have been the beginning of an ongoing enmity - the sort that spoils numerous surfs - but the ocean had other plans for us. A few days later the two of us ended up surfing alone in very good waves at another nearby spot. Now I'm a dork but I'm not that much of one. Neither was he and, rather than wreck the best surf we were both going to have in a while pretending not to notice each other, to our credit we both did the sensible thing. We smiled and talked.

And since then, we've done our best to be cordial in and amongst the desperately scare resource that is good Wellington waves.

Sometime last year I was driving to my favourite local spot, when I saw him walking along the road. The last section of that drive is on private property and he took the "No Driving Beyond This Point" signs seriously. No one else did. I stopped and offered him a lift.

"Sure. Thanks"
"Looks like that wind's swung round to the north"
"Yeah, real clean. I think it was westerly earlier so we've got lucky"
"Swells a bit small though."
"But hey"
"There's waves."

By that stage we'd parked the car and were walking to the beach. And I thought I'd broaden the discussion. "So, how's things been otherwise", I asked.

"Oh, not so good, I've been diagnosed with cancer. I start chemo next week"
"Sh#t. That's not good. What's the prognosis?"
"There's about an 80% survival rate."

In my defense, it wasn't the sort of conversation I was planning on having that afternoon. And, really, I'm much wiser if I have a chance to jot down a few speech notes ahead of time. So my reply was pretty much stock standard.

"Oh well. 80 percent's pretty good. She be fine I'm sure mate."

At 80% the odds are in your favour. They're even better at 95%. And better still at 99%.

And it's these latter two numbers that are following me round at present. For someone young and fit like myself the risk of dieing in a simple aortic valve-replacement operation is probably under one in one hundred. If my aortic root needs to be replaced it's more like 5 in 100. The risk of a stroke or some sort of brain damage, or other unpleasant complications, is somewhat higher but the numbers are still on my side.

Which is good. But not good enough to stop me from feeling frightened. When it's you contemplating lying on the operating table, even a small risk of disaster starts to feel uncomfortably large.

Hhhhmmm...so what was my point? Oh, yeah, I figured I wanted to blog about open heart surgery honestly. And being honest - I have to admit I worry. And I suspect that, over the coming weeks, my ongoing battle with this worry will be unavoidable. Something I need to get on top of. And I imagine this is the case for most people in my situation.

And my other point: being on the other end of those stats now, I'm pretty sure that my "she'll be right mate" response to the Professor wasn't the right one." I've had people say the same to me, and I really appreciate them trying to be reassuring, but I think if I were in the same situation again I'd say something like "oh, how do you feel about that?"

And maybe I would have, that afternoon, with the Professor, if given more time. But right at that moment a particularly good wave came through. And we were both racing to get into our wetsuits and out into the water before the sun started to set behind the Kaikouras.

Internet Argument

2008-06-19T15:03:00.003+12:00

Oh - could this be the best XKCD ever?

Internet Argument

hhhhhhmmmmmm...well the competition for 'best ever' is tough. But this cartoon rings true to me.

Not about everyone I've ever argued with, but for a certain type of internet adversary (hello Neal are you still out there?). These people infuriate you at first but, while you may never end up agreeing with them, at some point in time, through some mysterious mechanism, you end up realising that they're just another person like you. With different - mistaken! - beliefs, certainly. But also with their own fears and hopes, cruelnesses and kindnesses, and all those other shared things that get lost in between servers.

Once you realise this it's much harder to be ruder to someone online than you would be in person...

An interesting read

2008-06-19T08:08:00.001+12:00

(no, really, it is!) a nice simple summary [PDF] of the political economy of taxation in Latin America.

Asymmetric Information

2008-06-15T17:51:00.004+12:00

Sigh. Life would be easier as an agent in an economic model.

After my valve replacement surgery, assuming everything goes to plan, I'll be taking blood thinners for the rest of my life. Being on blood thinners doesn't mean that if I knick myself shaving I'll bleed to death. But it will increase the hassle of this activity. And, to be honest, it's a hassle enough as it is. So I'm thinking of buying an electric razor.

Easy enough.

Or not.

For a start I have no exact idea how much I'm willing to spend (or, to be more specific the worth of the extra utility I'll gain for it). But I'm guessing I'm aiming for something mid-range.

The main thing though, is that I want to buy something at least semi-decent. But, every different shaver I've seen makes that promise. The trouble is I have much less idea how true these promises are than the people who make them. I have, in other words, an asymmetric information issue.

I've tried to correct this by:

1. Consumer magazine: nothing on shavers.
2. Choice magazine: nothing on shavers since 2004 and even that was pretty crappy.
3. Which magazine. Something on shavers in 2007, which claimed that even quite cheap ones can do a good job. The problem is that I need a subscription to Which to find out any more. Which I'm willing to get except that the F'ing magazine only offers online payment options to people in the UK or Ireland.

So I still don't know what to get. If anyone has any suggestions I'd love to hear them...

[Update: sigh...no comments. Which might mean this blog has no readers. But I doubt it. I suspect something quite different.

Typical Laanta Reader]

The Butterfly Effect

2008-06-15T17:05:00.004+12:00

If a butterfly hadn't flapped its wings on a warm autumn morning somewhere in New South Wales, then that small low pressure system floating in the Tasman might have never picked up extra water.

And if it hadn't picked up the water, maybe it wouldn't have rained so hard as it crossed the lower North Island.

And if it hadn't rained so hard. I mightn't have driven my car slushing over the melted gravel roads to a river mouth in southern Wairarapa hoping to catch waves at a spot that never breaks.

And if I hadn't found those waves, I might never have surfed in the gritty water around the bar as the storm run off mixed into the sea.

And if I hadn't surfed in that water I might have never picked up that ear infection.

And if I hadn't got the infection maybe my arthritis wouldn't have come back so bad.

And if it hadn't, maybe it wouldn't have damaged my aorta.

And if my valve wasn't damaged then I wouldn't be worrying about open heart surgery.

...

And if I ever find that butterfly, trust me, there are going to be some strong words.

Discounting

2008-06-14T17:14:00.006+12:00

Were there any peeping Toms in Island Bay last Wednesday they would have been in for a shock. At 7.21pm, towards the eastern edge of the suburb, a man could have been spotted leaping from the bath, and running naked into the lounge shouting 'I've found it!'. Which was a bit of an undue claim, as it happens, as I hadn't found anything. I'd just finally got my head around the concept of discounting as it relates to climate change. All this was thanks to a very handy paper from Geoffrey Heal of Columbia University [pdf]. Heal's paper also explains how William Nordhaus is able to get such counter-intuitive results from his economic models as to whether or not we should do anything about climate change. Nordhaus, while admitting that climate change is real and serious, argues that the economics of the matter suggest that we do little. Nordhaus's models have been used by people like Bjorn Lomberg to suggest that we should turn a blind eye to the issue and by others to 'prove' that the Stern Review on climate change is wrong.

My recommendation is that you read Heal's paper yourself to get an understanding of all this. What follows is just my own attempt to crystalise my learning by trying to explain it. I may get it wrong.

Discounting is a tool that economists use to help us weigh costs and benefits across time.

There are several important components to any discounting equation.

The first of these is the pure rate of time preference, which is a function that reflects, in Heal's words, "the rate at which we discount the welfare of future people just because they are in
the future".

A rate of zero will mean that we discount their welfare not at all. Rates greater than zero will suggest that we place less value on their lives. Stern chose a pure rate of time preference slightly higher than zero to take into account the fact that there is a slight chance that there may be no future generations (if, for example, the Earth is hit by an asteroid). If you choose rates much higher than Stern's you are essentially saying that the lives of people living in the future are less valuable than those living at present. Discriminating across time in other words. Like all forms of discrimination, discrimination across time is hard to defend in any ethical sense. Yet a surprising number of people who call for little action on climate change on economic grounds are doing so because they make use of models with high pure rates of time preference. Their argument is, in effect, that, we shouldn't take action now because your grandchildren don't matter as much as you do. Seriously.

The next important component is simply the degree to which you think consumption will increase between now and the day of reckoning. This seems simple enough, yet as Heal points out most economic models of climate change are based on a simple consumption function that uses a single consumption good. In reality we consume many goods, and there are important ones of which our consumption may decrease, despite increasing overall consumption. Goods (services) related to natural capital may, in particular, decrease as a result of climate change. And these are some of the goods most important to our wellbeing. The models, in other words, are a bit fuzzy on the stuff that matters. They're also fuzzy on distributional issues (i.e. who does the consuming - rich or poor).

The third important component to our equation is the impact of consumption on utility (wellbeing). Perhaps one of the most sensible assumptions that one can make in economics is diminishing marginal utility. That is, the more we have, the less the next unit of consumption will contribute to our wellbeing. So when discounting a number is included into the equation to reflect the fact that future changes in consumption will be less important than current ones because we'll be richer then (and diminishing marginal utility would suggest that a change in consumption of value x will have an impact of y on wellbeing now but less than y in the future when x is greater). One thing to note is that Partha Dasgupta takes Stern to task for under assuming diminishing marginal utility. I'm not sure Dasgupta is right to do this but that's a post for another day. Another point to note is that there are also distributional issues at play. Most regimes for addressing climate change are structured so that wealthier nations bear the brunt of the costs. On the other hand if we do nothing it may be the poorest who are hit hardest - so therefore diminishing marginal utility could be inserted into a model in a manner opposite to the way it is used at present. Meaning that it would increase the case for action rather than decrease it.

Now, where was I? Oh, that's right, so what's the matter with Nordhaus's model. In a nutshell he calculates the pure rate of time preference from the observed rate of return on capital. Heal details all the problems with this but the most glaring one to me is simply that Nordhaus is confusing 'is' with 'ought'. Which is just so wrong in this instance it isn't funny. There are also all sorts of other problems including the way risk is managed and the assumptions needed to even consider deriving discounting from the rate of return to capital but you're better reading them from Heal's mouth than mine. I gotta run now...dinner needs to be cooked...but in the meantime remember this one thing:

Nordhaus's work like so much in economics brings with it the veneer of certainty that comes with numbers and maths. But underneath the surface is a much less clear world - one of philosophy. At the very least this ought undermine the tone of certainty with which people appeal to Nordhaus when they argue against action on climate change. But I also think it's worse than that. I think Nordhaus gets the philosophy horribly wrong. As far as dicsounting goes, we ought to discount Nordhaus.

[Update: added a bit more under diminishing marginal utility.]

Really smart religious person thingy

2008-06-14T16:20:00.010+12:00

A common criticism of New Atheists like Richard Dawkins and Sam Harris is that they only ever argue against a dumbed down version of religion, and that there are more subtle, sophisticated arguments out there which they have no answer for. As an agnostic I'm open to this line of attack; I've no dog, or god for that matter, in the race really, and I'm genuinely interested in whether a better case can be made for the various divine beings of the various holy books.

So I listened intently when Kim Hill interviewed respected religious philosopher William Lane Craig this morning (link to audio and will break after a few weeks unfortunately). To be fair to Mr Craig, Kim Hill, in between her rapid-fire thinking and interruptions, isn't the easiest sparring partner*, but I thought he was really, really weak. He had no satisfying answer to the problem of evil, nor the existence of other religions. And his 5 key arguments (or however many there were) were shot full of holes. At other times she just clobbered him with his own disingenuous debating points (like how he stays out of politics except on abortion which is an ethical issue, to which Ms Hill kindly pointed out that most people would consider at least some of the other stuff covered in politics ethical).

Really, if this is as good as the theists can do**, then the New Atheists do seem to be pitching their arguments at just the right level.

___________________________________________

*And, to also be fair to Kim Hill I should point out, for her faults, she's still pretty fab. I could do with out the how to cook duck stuff. And the interruptions every time the interviewee pauses for either breath or thought are infuriating if you're trying to actually understand the subject at hand. But, despite all this, she's smart, knows her stuff, and has covers some excellent subject matter.
** I had a hack at trying to make the case for a kind of Christianity here.

Fun

2008-06-14T11:48:00.000+12:00

Two comics which made me laugh.

One

Two

Interesting

2008-06-10T21:06:00.001+12:00

George Monbiot on the merits of small farms.

[Update: Paul Collier argues the opposite (more or less)]

Chavez reconsidered, reconsidered

2008-06-09T20:08:00.002+12:00

The suburb in south Melbourne where I visit the Naturopath and GP who treat my arthritis doesn't gel. Like a mismatched jigsaw puzzle the pieces fit together but not quite right.

Travel by train, or car along the gritty traffic-light strewn Nappean highway, and you'll be treated to all the ugliness of suburbia meeting main drag amongst the sprawl of a large city. And yet, if you park your car and walk two blocks you end up on the edge of Port Phillip bay. Which, every time I've been there, has been still and shimmering under a bright blue sky. I make it one of the treats of my travel to Melbourne to take my shoes off and wade among the clear and not too cold water and then dry my feet walking on the scrunching golden sand.

Back along the highway it's all alternating super-markets, takeaways and news agents, but even these have their secrets. Often-nice food (it is Melbourne after all) and the one newsagent I usually stop at, somehow manages to coax market forces into letting it sell political journals amongst the usual fare. There's Quad-rant, if that's your thing; the Australian version of Dissent; The Quarterly Review (name wrong?). And there's Foreign Affairs, which is where I started reading Francisco Rodríguez's 'An Empty Revolution: The Unfulfilled Promises of Hugo Chávez'. In it, Rodríguez claims that Chavez has badly mismanaged Venezuela's economy and that, contrary to conventional wisdom, has done next to nothing to help the poor.

The case seemed convincing enough but, as I read I couldn't help thinking, 'I wonder if Mark Weisbrot might have something to say about all this. And sure enough: he did. Enough even to elicit a response from Rodríguez, which itself led to Weisbrot responding again too.

Simon has carefully been keeping score throughout the rally, and I while pretty much agree with his tally I thought I'd add my own two cents. My reading of the duel thus far has Weisbrot well ahead: he's shown Rodriguez mixing data, muddling methods, and mis-representing his own claims.

He hasn't done enough to make me an avowed Chavezista though (which, to be fair is probably not his intent). Chavez has presided over a significant fall in poverty, a rise in social spending and a trend of falling inequality. And while, we don't really know how effective this social spending has been, Chavez's continuing popularity in the barrios is suggestive of something. And yet, as Rodriguez and Weisbrot agree, Chavez has also mismanaged the economy (deficit spending during a boom!) in a manner that may well harm long run performance. And his achievements have all been made during an economic growth spurt caused by oil prices, rebound from the business-strike recession, and expansionary (not to mention inflationary) fiscal policy. How well he, and his much touted economic model, would perform in tougher times is anyone's guess.

And, while Weisbrot shows that Chavez's achievements in the realm of pro-poor growth (growth which disproportionately benefits the poor) are not to be dismissed, at the same time, if his 21st century socialism was as transformative as some of his acolytes suggest would it have even been possible for Rodriguez to start a debate on this matter?

And at the end of the day this is what bugs, as well as fascinates, me about the whole Chavez phenomenon. Once you get close enough towards the Centre (and particularly the centre of the US foreign policy establishment) it's like some weird tractor beam operates which drains the pundit of any form of capacity for unraveling contradiction or displaying subtlety. Chavez is bad. Everything he does must be bad!

Meanwhile, if you travel away from the centre you don't have to get too far to the left before a competing tractor beam starts up and leaves you surrounded by a bunch of people to whom Chavez is a revolutionary hero who couldn't possibly do anything bad. Onwards the revolution etc.

You'd think that the first cold war would have removed everyone's enthusiasm for blind idealism. The whole Chavez debate suggests not - quite a few people out there are just itching for the sequel.

So where do I stand? I think that overall his policies are helping the poor in Venezuela. But, at the same time, I think that amongst the good work there are some real mistakes being made, and - look as I might - I just can't spot this wonderful alternative economic model he supposedly has on offer. Its better bits look like social democracy to me, coupled with macro economic giddiness. Now even social democracy would be no mean feet in a country as unequal as Venezuela, but when I hear Chavez's supporters argue that we should bring the Venezuelan model to New Zealand I'm just left wondering. Which bits? The Cuban doctors?

Politically, I don't think that Chavez is the dictator his foes claim him to be (and it must take some real chutzpah to make this claim given all the elections that keep taking place there). At the same time though I am seriously troubled by his autocratic tendencies and think that he could turn his back on democracy in the future. This doesn't mean I like the Venezuelan opposition, who seem considerably less democratic. And it certainly doesn't mean that I support the US government's appalling approach to dealing with him. But it does make me wonder why the movie on Chavez that I got to watch at the human rights film festival here recently couldn't find any time whatsoever amongst all the hagiography to at least mention some of his more draconian moves.

oh my

2008-06-08T20:16:00.003+12:00

I've just been to see the Warren Miller Ski flick, Playground. The skiing was interesting enough to me, a non skier. But then the movie ended with something called speed riding or something. Here's an example...

Freedom of Speach and its Discontents

2008-06-07T06:53:00.011+12:00

Both Ethical Martini and Poneke think Frog was wrong to recommend to its readers that they not watch, or consider a Broadcasting Standards complaint, over the Great Global Warming Swindle 'Documentary', which was screened recently on prime TV.

Ethical Martini, which is an interesting and worthwhile blog, would have preferred that Frog Blog encouraged its readers to argue the issues. I'm not so sure. Debate is great, but what debate is there actually to be had in the case of this documentary? What would really been achieved given that the long, long list of errors and falsehoods in Swindle have been pointed out many times without to-date causing its producer to resile from his position; nor stop media outlets from showing something they must now know to be dishonest, albeit good for the ratings.

Poneke's objection is less hard to glean but a generous reading of his or her post would suggest that Poneke's primary problem is Frog's attempt to stifle free speech through the threat of a BSA appeal.

As a defender of free speech I have been mulling over an abstracted version of this argument over the last few days and here's what I think:

First let's start with human rights. As some sort of rule utilitarian I support human rights, not for deontological reasons, but rather because I think they lead to a better world, which contains less suffering. They provide a basis for a sensible social contract where the individual is afforded protections from the collective; and history provides us with ample evidence to show that their violation leads to tragedy and horror.

Free speech is a particularly important human right - if it is prohibited, we can't even speak out to defend other rights. Free speech is essential to democracy too; indeed it is inherent to democracy.

Freedom of speech is also not so simple an issue as some of its defenders would make it seem.

The primary reason for this is that, as I have written previously, rights can be rivalrous. In other words, me making use of my rights can lead to you being deprived of yours. I can use my right of free speech to call for you to be silenced, for example.

In the 1994 Genocide in Rwanda radio stations were a key tool in mobilising the genocidaires in their attempted extermination of the Tutsi. Do we really want to defend free speech even when this speech is calling for genocide? Probably not. And, indeed, most nations don't - they have laws on their books that prohibit incitement to murder.

This is a clear infringement of people's right to free speech, but it seems justified.

And there are other ways that most democracies limit free speech to protect people. Lying, as we all learn one way or other, can be harmful. Not so harmful that we'd want to outlaw it, of course, at least in most instances. Yet in some cases it can be particularly harmful - say if a major newspaper were to accuse someone of being a foreign spy with no evidence. For this reason we have liable laws. Similarly, if a car dealer sells me a car which he claims to be 'as good as gold' while knowing it has dangerous faults, this could cause me physical and personal harm. So we have laws about that too.

When you think about it there are many ways in which democratic and apparently free societies restrict free speech for what appear to be quite justifiable reasons.

None of this is to say that some of these restrictions aren't problematic: liable laws, for example, (or threats of) are used all the time to silence what may well be reasonable criticisms. This is a real issue but few people would use it to argue the case that we should eliminate libel laws altogether - instead we just need to get the balance right.

Laws curtailing freedom of speech can also be dangerous through their unintended consequences - regulation, which may well-intentioned, could subsequently be used to silence genuine political dissent. Hate speech laws, and the recent debate around them in the UK, are a good example of this argument being played out. For this reason, and the danger of the ever-present slippery slope to authoritarianism, we need to be very wary about introducing new laws which may impede free speech.

So it's not simple. But this doesn't change the fact that we already restrict free speech in quite a few ways, most of which seem justifiable.

The relevance here to the Broadcasting Standards Authority, and our broadcasting laws, is that they too are a way of stifling certain types of speech. Frog provides us with the relevant section of New Zealand law:

Broadcasters should refrain from broadcasting material which is misleading or unnecessarily alarms viewers.

Setting aside the unnecessarily alarms bit (which I'm not at all sure is justified) this law reasonable enough. Less so now, perhaps, in the age of the internet, but for much of New Zealand's history, broadcasters occupied a particularly privileged position in New Zealand discourse. Often the enjoyed a near monopoly in information provision or, at the very least, were likely to be the only source of information for most people on most issues. Which puts them in a position of considerable power. Power which when abused can cause considerable harm.

Imagine, for example, if a New Zealand broadcaster produced a series of documentaries which claimed to show, without justification, that vaccinations caused cancer. And that this led to a significant number of New Zealanders not vaccinating their children. Herd immunity is perilously easy to loose and even if not everyone watched or believed the documentaries we could see a situation where epidemics broke out again and people died. To me it seems perfectly reasonable to stop this from occurring.

Just to be clear though: I don't think that anti-vaccination campaigners should be silenced. They should be free to speak their minds and to try and prove their claims scientifically (good luck to them, but that's another topic). But until these claims can be backed by fact they shouldn't be broadcast as such. The risk of harm is too great.

It's true that broadcasting laws can be abused and that slippery slope arguments against them are plausible enough but, once again, I think that these aren't arguments against their existence. Instead they show why we need to take time to get them right.

I'm open to being dissuaded from this stance - just as free speech itself is problematic so are almost all restrictions on it - but one thing that really doesn't wash is to start implying that someone is trying to silence free speech by using a law which has been long established without first making a coherent case, outside of one's views on the specific context, against the law.

--

As an aside, Prime could probably defend any BSA complaint by arguing that that they held a panel debate after the documentary showing, but I'm not sure. Firstly, is this really balanced? You've already given one side of the 'debate', surely balance would suggest giving the other side equivalent space, not sound bites in and amongst an argument. Also, in terms of public broadcasting and the complexities of science, is the hurley burley of a debate really the best way to let these be presented? Why not have let David Wratt (the only climatologist on the panel) simply outline the errors in an uninterrupted segment afterwards?

[Update: in comments Ethical Martini points out that he didn't claim Frog was wrong to recommend BSA complaints. In my original post, I didn't suggest this, I noted that I thought that this point was at the centre of Poneke's problem with Frog's post (although, to be fair to Poneke, I can't even say this with 100% certainty - it's hard to figure out what his/her actual problem with Frog's post is). I thought my original post was clear in its distinction here, but perhaps not - so I'm adding this update just to make doubly sure.]

MRI, where am I

2008-06-05T21:15:00.005+12:00

[Note: some of the info. in this post is out of date; I misunderstood - see here]

Last week I had an MRI scan. Nothing near as dramatic as an angiogram, but claustrophobic enough to make me glad I'm not a vampire and don't sleep in a coffin.

Anyhow, the purpose of the MRI was to determine whether my aortic root was stretched sufficiently to warrant having it replaced as well as my aortic valve. It was, and this means I'm in for more complicated surgery although, according to the cardiologist, it shouldn't make for a worse prognosis or longer recovery time.

The other thing the MRI picked up though was the fact that the walls of my aorta are thickened. Which probably means that there is still active inflammation there.

Now this is a problem, as inflamed tissue is harder to perform surgery on. So we need to find some way of reducing the inflammation before surgery. The trouble is that the three top candidates for doing this - steroids, methotrexate and TNF inhibitors - all have side effects that aren't particularly desirable if recovering from open heart surgery is your thing.

So it's a bit of a worry. Although - and this I need to bear in mind - not too much of a worry. People on steroids, for example, are subjected to major surgery all the time and do just fine.

Summary: a bit less ok, but still ok. Sigh.

Two Great Blogs

2008-06-05T21:01:00.002+12:00

Kathy G

Simon Bidwell (wonderful Wellington based musings on international development).

The African Economic Miracle?

2008-06-05T09:39:00.001+12:00

Here's a great discussion at the Boston Review on Africa's recent economic lift off, it's causes and its sustainability.

William Easterly Jumps The Shark

2008-06-04T14:18:00.003+12:00

William Easterly is capable of being perfectly sensible [audio file]. And when he is, he's well worth listening too. Other days though you've just got to wonder.

From Trade Diversion we get this extract of his latest FT column.

What to do in a world of such unpredictability? There are some general principles and they do not require experts. Another Nobel laureate gave the crucial insight a long time ago – the answer is freedom for multitudinous individuals to figure out their own answers. Friedrich Hayek said: “Liberty is essential to leave room for the unforeseeable and unpredictable; we want it because we have learned to expect from it the opportunity of realising many of our aims. It is because every individual knows so little and ... because we rarely know which of us knows best that we trust the independent and competitive efforts of many to induce the emergence of what we shall want when we see it.”
The evidence for this vision is not found in those baffling fluctuations of growth rates, it is in the levels of development attained in the long run. Confirming Hayek, systems that give more liberty to individuals – featuring both more economic and political freedoms – are associated with much less poverty. The evidence for this comes from both history (for example old, despotic, poor Europe compared with modern, free, rich Europe) and cross-country comparisons (for example South Korea compared with North Korea, former West Germany compared with East, New Zealand compared with Zimbabwe). This alternative paradigm has a much smaller role for experts, because experts cannot direct or impose freedom from the top down (or else it would not be freedom).

Yes, the same man who criticisies development experts and their grand plans has one of his own. Liberty - free markets and free politics. It's a nice ideal, particularly if you take freedom to include positive freedoms as well (in which case Hayek should be replaced by Sen). But ever so slightly simplistic, no? And comparing North and South Korea, Zimbabwe and New Zealand (which, by the way still clings to the sort of social democracy that Hayek hated)? That isn't evidence in any meaningful sense of the term. And when you do compare the evidence, it turns out that countries with smaller states (and hence freer markets) don't grow any faster than those with greater government involvement. Similarly, democracies suffer fewer famines and have better distributive outcomes, but the evidence to suggest that they grow faster is pretty week. South Korea, readers will remember, took off economically while a dictatorship and it's growth was state-led.

In saying this I'm not defending dictatorships. I'm not even making the case for a universal social democratic model for the world. I'm just sayin' that Easterly is a hypocrite - accusing others of grand plans while fostering his own - one which can't even be backed up by evidence.

Trade and International Development

2008-06-01T19:40:00.004+12:00

A few weeks back the folks at the Victoria University International Development Society very kindly asked me to speak at a debate/panel discussion which they had organised on international trade agreements. My fellow panellists were Lindsay Mitchell (ACT), Roger Kerr (Business Round Table) and Russell Norman (the Greens, I think he still posts on Frog Blog). Both Lindsay and Roger deserve credit for coming to speak on what could hardly be described as home turf. And Roger, in particular, made some good points (albeit ones I disagreed with for the most part). He also made my night by calling me a mercantilist. I've been called a few names over the years but that one is definitely a keeper. I wonder if I could get it on my business cards?

The star of the show though was Russell, who was funny and well-informed. He was also convincing: I was surprised to find myself agreeing with so much of what he said. At least until afterwards when I decided that there were things we disagreed on - he was just so polished though I didn't realise it at the time. This, I think, is the mark of a a good politician.

As for my own performance, I've certainly done better. My speech was as much musings for myself as something designed to win anyone over. And while some of my comments in the ensuing debate were clear and concise, at times I felt like I was confusing even myself. The audience I imagine must have been even more baffled.

My speech is pasted in below. One thing I want to do before hand was deal with a good point that both Roger and Lindsay made, and which I don't think I responded to at all well on the night.

Their point was that much economic theory suggests that reducing trade barriers unilaterally will be beneficial to a country regardless of what other countries do. And that given this fact, even if the EU and US maintain subsidies, the developing world should lower tariffs.

The problem with this argument is that basic trade theory is posits gains from tariff reductions in terms of relative prices. And getting prices right is important but not so much to countries where most people earn less than a dollar a day. Their problem is growth. And most trade theory (at least as I understand it) doesn't deal with this directly. One can still make a case for trade liberalistion as being growth-enhancing but it's not as tight. And by that point the interesting questions become empirical - and most recent empirical research provides no evidence that countries with lower tariffs grow faster.

Ok, enough from me - here's the speech.

==

Tricks of the Trade Deals – Trade and International Development

Thanks. Over the next few minutes I hope to give you a brief outline of an NGO staffer perspective on trade, trade deals and development. Obviously, I’m not claiming to speak for all NGOs or all NGO staff but hopefully I can give you some sort of very general development perspective.

Starting with what development workers care about. Central to development, obviously, is a concern with poor parts of the world and, usually, the poorest people in these regions. This isn’t exclusive – I’m also concerned about the fate of poorer sectors of our own society too – but it is important; much development work focuses on people who live on next to nothing. And this, in turn, leads to a set of values which may differ from those of my fellow panellists.

The first of these is a strong belief in something that economists refer to as ‘diminishing marginal utility’. This is simply the idea that money matters more to people who have less of it. If you give someone who earns a dollar a day a pay rise of one dollar this will contribute to a significantly larger improvement in their welfare than if you were to give the same pay rise to me. That extra dollar to them may mean the difference between receiving or not receiving medical care, or shelter, or food for their children. For me, it’s pocket change. This seems like common sense. But you’d be surprised how often it is absent from economic analysis and particular types of political discourse.

What does it mean in terms of trade agreements? It means that the first thing I want to know about any such agreements is: what will their impact be on the least well off?

Another reason why I want to know this is because, like most development workers, I’m aware of the vulnerability that comes with extreme poverty. For people living in extreme poverty, shocks, even if they are only temporary, can be disastrous. The English economist John Maynard Keynes once wrote that, “in the long run we’re all dead”. But if you have no savings and live in country with no social safety net, and you loose your job, you’ll die just as easily in the short run too.

So when we think about trade agreements we are also concerned about even temporary setbacks that they may inflict on the very poor.

With my biases thus declared I now want to offer a basic statement about trade that is both simple and uncontroversial. And then unpack it a bit.

The statement: Increased international trade benefits countries as a whole.

I agree with this but it does not follow that I necessarily support what is called free trade or all trade agreements. Why?

Very quickly:
1. “Countries as a whole” is not the same as everyone within the country. Change almost inevitably brings winners and losers. And, what I want to know first, is who the losers are and whether they need to be, or indeed can be, compensated.
2. Carte blanch trade liberalisation does not necessarily lead to increased trade. Almost every developed country as well as recent developing country trade success stories used strategic barriers to protect their infant industries. Trade agreements shouldn’t deny developing countries this option.
3. What we call free trade really isn’t that free but tends to reflect the respective political power of the bargaining partners. Powerful countries get to keep protections they don’t need – weaker nations are asked to remove those that they do.
4. Trade has a role to play in economic development but it isn’t everything. Domestic policy is equally, if not more, important and trade liberalisation if taken to far can remove key domestic policy options – some balance is needed.

Having said all this I want to emphasise again that I am not opposed to international trade. For many people in developing countries it is perhaps the only route out of poverty. But this fact alone means that it is crucial that we approach trade in a pragmatic fashion which helps rather than harms the least well off.

Dueling with the Visible Hand (GST is regressive!)

2008-06-01T18:07:00.004+12:00

Over at TVHE (guess which blogs I've been reading lately) Matt argues that:

The main criticism I often hear about this is that GST is regressive. Now I used to spout that line as well, after all poor people have a lower marginal propensity to save then wealthy people, as a result they spend more of their income, and so more is taxed.
However, then I was told to think about it a different way. Over our lifecycle we should spend all our money, so that we are on the boundary of our budget constraint. As everyone spends all their income over their lifetime, GST must be a flat tax.

I read TVHE not only because Matt and his co-bloggers are smart but also because they have a near monopoly on interesting counter-arguments to my own beliefs. I enjoy what I read even when I disagree with it, because I'm always learning something.

Having said all this, I have to confess that I think Matt's got it plain wrong here. Surely the mere existence of inheritance taxes provides fairly sound proof of the fact that people don't spend all their income over time. And I'd imagine, although I'm open to being dissuaded by evidence to the contrary, that the wealthy tend to die with more than the poor do. What theory suggests about people's consumption patterns and what they actually do are two different things altogether.

Yet, even if the wealthy really did not save more than the poor, GST would still be a regressive tax. Why? In three words: diminishing marginal utility. Which, in this context, is a fancy way of saying that money matters more to those who have less of it. If you give a person who earns a dollar a day a pay rise of a dollar a day it will improve their wellbeing significantly more than if you give the same pay rise to me. The idea of diminishing marginal utility is so strongly intuitive that it ought to be axiomatic, I think. Moreover, most of the recent happiness research confirms its existence. It is, in other words, a pretty safe bet.

And, as good (albeit troubled) utilitarians, we ought to think about tax in terms of its impact on people's wellbeing (utility) rather than on money. Money, after all, is but a means to an ends.

And, in the same sense that a pay rise matters more to someone in poverty than it does to someone who is well off, a rise in costs will also harm someone who is poor more than it well their wealthy compatriot.

For example:

Imagine an economy where no one saves and with only three goods: rice, cheese and caviar.

Rice alone is sufficient to fulfill our needs, but cheese tastes better and caviar better still*. So, where they can, people will replace rice with cheese and cheese with caviar. Upgrading from rice to cheese or cheese to caviar will make people happier (and so better off) but the most important thing to their wellbeing is that they consume calories sufficient to stave off hunger and ill-health.

Now imagine two people - Karl and Milton.

Karl earns $5 a week, Milton earns $15. Both need to eat 1kg of rice, cheese or caviar, or some combination of the three to avoid hunger. Rice costs $5 a kg, cheese $10 and caviar $15/kg.

So Karl is full if unfulfilled eating a kilo of rice a week. Meanwhile, Milton's styling on pure caviar.

But one day the Nolanists sweep to power in a landslide election victory, and they decide to impose a GST of 20%**.

Rice now costs $6 a week and Karl's health suffers as does his happiness, eaten away by gnawing hunger. Milton on the other hand shifts some of his caviar consumption to cheese. He's worse off, but not by nearly as much as Karl.

And this is why GST is regressive: it disproportionately impacts on the wellbeing of the least well off, even if the proportion of income effect is neutral.

_________________________________________________________
*Obviously, I'm stretching the truth here: in the real world caviar is repulsive.
**I'm ignoring the corresponding income tax cut here because I'm too lazy to do the maths, and because it doesn't actually change the picture if distributed evenly and if revenue neutral.

Dueling with the Visible Hand (utilitarianism edition)

2008-06-01T17:18:00.004+12:00

Over at TVHE Matt has replied to my reply to his reply to my post on the trouble with utilitarianism.

I'll keep my reply brief for two reasons:

1. I am a utilitarian myself and the last thing I want to do is construct an argument so good it convinces me; then I'd have to go find a new political philosophy, which would be a real chore :)

2. I don't want to scare off my tiny readership - and I'm worried that arguments about arcane political philosophy may well do this...

Ok - here we go:

Starting with the good news: both Matt and I agree that utilitarianism is no different from other political philosophies insomuch as that it ultimately makes claims that can't be anchored perfectly to something deeper (appeals to value-judgements, I guess). Matt, however, thinks that utilitarianism provides more transparency in dealing with value judgments. I'm not so sure: I think we could appeal to Rawlsian liberalism, or the libertarianism of Robert Nozick with equal transparency.

I also agree with Matt that people will feel better about chicken pies they buy than they will about those they steal. As I said in my second post, incorporating our preferences for justice into people's utility functions is perfectly sensible.

Where we seem to differ is that Matt believes we can combine consequentialist and non-consequentialist beliefs into one overarching philosophical model. I understand the appeal; most of us do this in our day to day philosophising (we support some things because they improve people's lives, others because they seem fair). But, at least to my non-philosopher mind - in terms of constructing sound and rigorous frameworks for weighing policy and economic choices, the two ways of arguing what is right are completely incompatible.

This, I think, is our fundamental disagreement. And going back to my original post, the fact that justice can't be brought into the picture (except as rules in rule utilitarianism or as something that make us happier) leaves me uncomfortable in this unjust world of ours.

The Standard has the numbers on benefits...

2008-06-01T17:16:00.002+12:00

...and they show that the conservative talking point that "unemployment has only dropped because people have been moved onto sickness benefits" is total nonsense.

Burke's Law*

2008-06-01T17:08:00.006+12:00

States that:

The trickier the driving maneuver you are attempting, the greater the number of cars that suddenly appear on the scene will be.

I was reminded of this today as I tried to turn right out of a partially obscured side alley. No sooner had I nosed the front of the car out into the previously empty street when, 2 SUVs, a van, 3 cars and a weird sit-down cycle came plunging at me from different directions.

________________________________
*Burke's law is not named after that conservative thinker bloke, but rather its inventor, and surfing buddy of mine, J Burke.

You're Banned!!!!

2008-05-30T08:14:00.006+12:00

A while ago I made a promise to myself not to comment on anymore of Poneke's climate change threads. Doing so had clearly become pointless. Poneke maintains a certainty of opinion completely unjustified by his or her understanding of climate science. And he or she just gets offended when you point out the errors in the posts.

Foolishly, though yesterday I commented again, lured in by a discussion of William Nordhaus and discounting (something that is worth discussing). Of course I couldn't resist the usual error correcting and, lo and behold, there I was - banging my head against a rock again.

So that does it. I'm banned! Or, at least, I'm banning myself. I know it's meant to work the other way in the blogosphere. But I really need to learn to focus my time on things constructive. And arguing with climate change deniers (as opposed to genuine sceptics, who might actually be swayed by evidence) achieves nothing.

[Update: Oh, it looks like Poneke has beaten me to the draw. My last comment on that thread (from last night) never made it out of his/her moderation queue. Assuming it didn't get deleted by accident, it would appear that Poneke is about as keen on me commenting on his/her website as I am. Which is great in the sense that it provides me with help in observing my ban. Not so good perhaps in what it reveals about Poneke, who claims to be opposed to any attempt to silence debate on climate change but possibly isn't so willing to apply the same approach to their blog.

This is fair enough, up to a point: freedom of speech is a society wide principle and people's blogs are their own property. They needn't give a platform to those they don't agree with. Nevertheless, given that my comment was neither abusive nor trolling - it was merely a response to Poneke's response to me - to disappear it with out any comment or acknowledgment just seems rather dishonest. Creating the impression that I had no response to Poneke's Homer Simpsonesque comeback on the subject of statistics.]

[Update 2: Anyone seeking a detailed critique of the Great Global Warming Swindle should have a look at this. Hat tip and thanks to George Darroch]

The Tracks of my Tears

2008-05-29T20:53:00.006+12:00

During my first bout of reactive arthritis I most probably came down with Iritis. I say most probably because, despite the fact that it is a common complication of Reactive Arthritis, and despite the fact that I had textbook symptoms, the Ophthalmologist decided - based on the results of a diagnostic test - that I had some sort of scratch or a problem with cold sores instead. In all likelihood I was misdiagnosed and I spent several very, very painful and anxious days until fortunately the problem started to clear up of its own accord*.

I was lucky that my eyesight wasn't severely damaged at the time. But it wasn't and I still have great vision. The only thing that seemed to change is that my eyes became much more sensitive to the cold. Now, whenever I'm walking in cold air, they stream tears. I know that most people's eyes do this a bit. But mine seem to go into overdrive.

So there I was, walking through manners mall after work today, crying a river...I wonder what it looked like to everyone else.

____________________________________
*WARNING: Iritis is not necessarily self limiting. And can do real damage. If you think you have it get medical attention.

Links

2008-05-28T14:41:00.001+12:00

Just so I remember...

Sweden
Pigovian Taxes
A good book to read

To very, very good posts...

2008-05-27T20:16:00.001+12:00

...on the Hand Mirror. Read 'em.

Chavez again...

2008-05-26T21:05:00.005+12:00

To and fro on the economic consequences of Mr Chavez. Just a bookmark for me really.

[Update: Oh man, Weisbrot blows Rodríguez out of the water! How did that nonsense get published in Foreign Affairs in the first place??????]

[Update 2: via Simon in comments we discover that Rodriguez has a rejoinder. Weekend reading hopefully].

[Update 3: thank you again to Simon - Weisbrot responds again too. See Simon's thoughts in comments. I'm still inclined to think Weisbrot wins hands down].

Long May You Run (on three cylinders)

2008-05-25T18:18:00.008+12:00

A couple of weeks ago our old car ended up at the wreckers. As a tree hugging greenie I'm surely not meant to care about a car. And as a rationalist, no doubt, I'm not supposed to hold the belief, like some sort of animist, that it had spirit. But the car had heart. And it loved empty gravel roads. It was slow (even my mother, who owned it before me, thought it gutless) but it fit my surfboards, and me when I needed to sleep in it. My wife and I are aiming for something much more fuel efficient in the next car (it wasn't a SUV but it was old). But none of this will change the fact that I miss the ol' car.

Anyhow, Neil Young does car eulogies much better than me.

Goodbye blue streak.

Blogs, Learning and the Minimum Wage

2008-05-25T09:53:00.003+12:00

It always intrigues me to read print media pundits writing off blogs as shrill, derivative and poorly informed. It's true that a lot of blogs use articles from the print media as the basis for their posts (and so are, in a sense, derivative). But to me this seems to be a good thing; removing barriers to entry in the ongoing conversation that ought to be democracy and ensuring that large media outlets don't inevitably have the final word on that which matters.

As for being shrill and ill informed, this is very true - of some blogs (and New Zealand, alas, has more than its fair share of these). But, in the same way that the Sun is not the Financial Times, some does not mean all, and there are plenty of bogs out there which are incredibly well informed and also well mannered.

Crooked Timber is a case in point. To give but one example, this recent post on labour markets and the minimum wage by a guest blogger there is simply excellent. The author knows her stuff, as do most of the commenters. Which means that you'll read the post and learn more about the topic than you would in a year's worth of newspaper articles here; or a first year economics text book for that matter.

That does it! I'm leaving!!

2008-05-25T09:39:00.002+12:00

Over at Public Address Danyl is contemplating a move across the ditch, tempted by the mountains of money he could be earning. For me the desire to emigrate is driven by something else entirely: the newspaper deficit. Ok, so the Age isn't the Guardian or even the New York Times, but it's

(a) well written
(b) somewhat socially aware
(c) not a pamphlet for the tax cut lobby

...which puts it in a league of its own compared to the Dom and the Herald.

Reminder

2008-05-11T12:42:00.003+12:00

Use these posts to write something on Pigouvian taxes (and learn how to spell that word while you're at it!):

http://blog.greens.org.nz/index.php/2006/04/12/the-polluted-hand-of-the-market/
http://tvhe.wordpress.com/2008/05/06/why-is-the-nz-government-buying-the-rail-lines/
http://capitalismbad.blogspot.com/2006/04/invisible-hand.html

Utilitarianism Again

2008-05-11T10:20:00.003+12:00

Of the many lists of things to do currently piling up in my life, one of the longer ones is 'Reply to posts on the Visible Hand in Economics'. While I disagree with quite a lot of what I read there, the content is always well written and well argued. And interesting.

But, alas, I speak economics only a little better than Portuguese, which - combined with the substantive nature of much that is blogged there - means that my responses need time; a scarce commodity at present.

Anyhow, a little while ago Matt responded to my post on the problems with utilitarianism*.

It's an interesting post and in the comments below he makes the very worthwhile point that people may actually feel better knowing that they live in a juster world and as such - to some degree - justice can be incorporated in people's utility functions.

In the post itself he makes two points which I don't think are quite right, though**.

1. The first of these is that utilitarianism somehow differs from other political philosophies in that it doesn't involve value judgments (claims that can't be perfectly anchored to deeper claims) about right and wrong. The trouble is that utilitarianism does do this: arguing that we should do what leads to the greatest good is a value judgment just like saying that we should concern ourselves with fairness as it might be reasonably construed behind a veil of ignorance. One of the strengths of utilitarianism is that the value judgment involved seems more intuitively defensible than, say, claims on absolute property rights, but value judgment it remains.

2. Matt suggests that we can mix concerns for justice (equity) with concerns for outcomes (efficiency) in our grand designs. I'm no expert but I just can't think of this - mixing consequentialist and non-consequentialist political philosophy - leading to anything but a philosophical mess. In saying this I'm not making a dig at Matt: in my day to day thinking I do exactly the same; in his ubiquitous first year econ. text book N Gregory Mankiw does it; and, heck, it's throughout our daily political discourse. But I just can't see how the mixture could ever be coherent and consistent.

Maybe I'm wrong and maybe there is a way to soundly mix deontology and consequentialism though. If there is, I'd love to hear it.

__________________________________________________________________
* I'm still a utilitarian, remember - just a troubled one.
**And I'm neither an economist nor a philosopher so it may be me that is wrong here of course.

It's like raaaaiiiinnn on our wedding day

2008-05-11T09:10:00.005+12:00

We got married last week.

As regular readers of this blog will know, I am a worrier - and the wedding was no exception. Although, to be fair, my partner coming down with a stomach-bug the night before and a forecast straight from the fantasies of people who believe in global cooling, actually, I think, offered some real reasons for concern.

So there I was, at midnight, listening to rain stampede across the roof and the sound of intermittent vomiting when I started thinking: why do we fret about rain on our wedding day? Presumably not just because Alanis Morrisette thinks it's ironic. Obviously, it's a logistical pain but I decided our wedding weather anxieties stem from something else:

Life has its challenges, with those unexpected often being the worst. So it's only natural, when you make a commitment to try and spend the rest of your days together, to start wondering what might or might not come to pass, and to - all of a sudden - feel very much in the hands of fate. Which, in turn, makes good luck seem awfully important.

And so, perhaps, we worry about rain on our wedding day, for the most part, because it feels like a test case - an example of the luck we may or may not experience through the rest of our married lives.

Now, obviously, this line of thinking was hardly helping my nerves (was that a clap of thunder?!) so I changed tack a bit:

Realistically, rationally, the things that matter most are those that we can affect - right? Not the coalitions of chance we call luck. And I figured that even if my partner was ill, and even if it started to hail, the really important thing - and the precedent that mattered most - was that we'd find a way of making the day work regardless. And, in turn, hopefully, our lives together. While there's no certainty, it was, I discovered, much easier to feel confident of our ability to overcome bad things than to hope they never happened.

Anyhow, as it came to pass, I never really needed to convince myself of all this. On the day, her stomach held and the weather broke. And we got married outside under cloudy but dry skies, while up the end of the valley the Tararuas were painted white by freshly fallen snow.

Oh my Gored

2008-05-11T08:52:00.003+12:00

As temperatures rise, denier tactics plunge. They're now doctoring Al Gore interviews so they can claim he is being misleading about science.

Gore's law plus active dishonesty - these people can not be called sceptics in any reasonable sense of the term.

Via comments at Deltoid.

How many...

2008-05-08T19:54:00.004+12:00

Inspired by Gareth, I couldn't resist:

Q: How many climate sceptics does it take not to change a light bulb?

A: Approximately 100. 1 to say that the current absence of light is the result of natural solar cycles and the other 99 to disseminate this finding through their 'science organisations' and oil industry funded think tanks.

[Update: This is cool. Robert Butler, the author of the original climate change light bulb joke has blogged about the spread of the meme, very kindly stating that my own humble attempt above is his favourite derivative thus far. Thanks Robert!]

More Great Climate Change Humour...

2008-05-08T18:45:00.001+12:00

...at Gareth's place.

Hmmm...

2008-04-29T08:14:00.006+12:00

...does David Farrar really understand the pros and cons of relative poverty measures?

[Update: changed the wording of the post. Also, for what it's worth, I think that my own post is unduly harsh on relative poverty measures, and that CPAG is well within their rights to use them. They're following international norms, the type of measure is eminently justifiable, and DPFs example chosen to illustrate their flaws (where wealthiest 50% of New Zealanders become bankrupt overnight) is an example of a reductio ad absurdum which is, of its own accord, absurd.]

ha ha ha

2008-04-26T18:27:00.001+12:00

9/11 Conspiracy Theories 'Ridiculous,' Al Qaeda Says

An Angiogram

2008-04-24T20:50:00.003+12:00

Monday was angiogram day. That mean having a hole snipped into an artery (or vein, I don't know which) in my groin. Through that hole a tiny wire and catheter were poked up into my heart. From that catheter radioactive liquid was squirted. And from that liquid an image of heart was picked up by x-ray(?) and shown on a TV.

From what he saw the cardiologist determined that I don't have coronary problems to accompany my aortic ones. Hooray! What he did find though was that my aorta has been stretched. So that might have to be replaced with the valve too. Not so hooray.

Anyhow, I'm one step closer to surgery and you're wondering just what its like to have your heart squirted with radioactive stuff.

Well...the actual squirting was odd, but not that bad . First I felt a warmth in my chest a bit like that caused by a shot of whiskey. Traveling at the remarkable speed of my blood, the heat then raced to my head and my feet. It happened in a moment. You blood really, really doesn't mess about in its trip around your body.

I'd be lying if I said that the angiogram as a whole wasn't a little unpleasant. But it was bearable. Easily bearable.

It was my first time in an operating theatre too - and that was kind of surreal. In the background they played reggae music (I'm not really a fan of Wellington reggae but it did help me relax). And at one point I swear that both the nurse and cardiologist were humming and swaying too it. I half expected them to break out into song. And for a moment, I was lying there on the edge of the musical of my heart problems. "His heat is bad, it's very sad..."

Musical or not, the cardiologist, nurses and assorted medical personal were all professional, friendly and kind. It really helped.

As I left the theatre, two other people were queued up behind be waiting for similar procedures. For a whole morning, at least one day a week, the doctors and nurses in that unit perform angiograms and similar operations. One after the other. I can't imagine how stressful this must be. I'm in awe of people who do this for a living.

Less Loveable with Every Minute

2008-04-19T11:55:00.003+12:00

It's been a long time since I bought the Listener. Such is its trajectory of descent now though, that I would be embarrassed to even flick through it queuing at the supermarket.

Wings, Wings!

2008-04-19T11:24:00.003+12:00

Via Robert Butler I discover that, thanks to Tim Lambert, Gore's Law made it as far as Grist and Andrew Sullivan. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't rather chuffed...thanks Tim.

Yet another bookmark

2008-04-15T14:24:00.001+12:00

Alan S. Blinder explains Keynesian economics.

Worth Reading

2008-04-11T13:13:00.001+12:00

On health costs and aging.

Monopsony in Labour Markets

2008-04-11T08:06:00.003+12:00

Just a bookmark two good posts on monopsony and labour markets. (Hat tip: Crooked Timber).

Poverty, Gender and Development

2008-04-09T08:22:00.003+12:00

In a paper presented to the Progressive Governance Conference, Jody Heymann and Magda Barrera, give an example of what it is like to be young, poor and a mother in the developing world.

Gabriela Saavedra’s home in Tegucigalpa, Honduras, had been crudely built with scrapwood and was now old and falling apart. While in elementary school, Gabriela, along with her three siblings, had inherited the house when her mother died of uterine cancer that had gone undiagnosed and untreated for too long. Now 19 years-old, Gabriela was renting out the eight-foot-wide downstairs of the shack, although “renting out” was more a figure of speech: the woman downstairs was dying of uterine cancer herself and had not been able to pay rent for months, but kicking her out or demanding rent was the last thing Gabriela could do after having witnessed her own mother’s painful demise.
To get to Gabriela’s own room in the shack, you had to climb an outside wooden ladder, of which the top two rungs were broken—a ladder she had to climb holding her 19-month-old toddler, Ana Daniel.

Sitting in a chair in a weathered Nike sweatshirt, Gabriela described the sweatshop where she was working. She made clothes for export from7.00amuntil at least 6.00pm, seven days a week. But many nights, with no advance warning, the Korean owners would require everyone to stay until 9.00 or 11.00pm. There had been several shifts when they had been required to stay until 5.00am the next morning, leaving no time for sleep after getting home before the morning commute back to the factory. Gabriela and the other workers had been told that if they refused to work the mandatory overtime shifts, they would lose their jobs.

The dangers of her job increased with the sleep deprivation. “I was sewing at 3.00am, and I couldn’t do it anymore because I was so tired. I almost cut off a finger.”She told us of others who had worked at the factory longer and suffered serious injuries because of extreme fatigue. Overtime pay was even lower than her normal wages. Gabriela noted, “I’ve heard that overtime at night should be paid at 200% of normal wages, but they pay only 75% [of normal wages].”

Despite working seven days a week from 11 to 22 hours a day and making 100 shirts an hour, Gabriela earned only 400 lempiras, or US$26 a week. Food was expensive at the factory—$1 to $1.50 a meal—but the 15 minutes allotted for a lunch break left no time for alternatives. Even though she ate the factory food once during an 11- to 22-hour day, Gabriela spent $7–10 of her weekly salary on her own meals. The next $10 paid for formula and diapers for her daughter. That left $6–9 a week for any other necessities. Gabriela could not afford to lose any of the limited wages she earned, so she worked when she was sick. She also worked when Ana Daniel was sick.

On the eve of a children’s holiday, Gabriela’s husband, Daniel, had been coming home with a gift for their daughter. With a full two weeks’ wages in his pocket, Daniel was attacked and murdered. Not long before our interview, Gabriela’s 10-year-old stepsister had started caring for the toddler, but she was to return to school within weeks of our departure.

Gabriela had no idea what she would do then. Gabriela’s face lit up as she displayed the clothes she had made for her daughter out of thrown away scraps she had taken from the factory. When asked what she would change in her life if she could change one thing, she answered without hesitation. She spoke immediately, not of the condition of her house or of her wages, but of caring for Ana Daniel: “I would like to work fewer hours. I would like to have someone who could take care of my daughter over here. And I would like to leave work earlier to be able to spend more time with her.”

Despite her mother’s adoration, Ana Daniel did not have a chance at a healthy childhood if her mother remained in the sweatshop where she worked. The pay was too low for them both to eat adequately. There was no money to repair the burned-out holes in the side of their shack, or to fix the missing rungs on the ladder that one day could trip Ana Daniel and cause her to fall more than a dozen feet to the ground. There was not enough money to pay for water cleaned of the diarrhea-inducing pathogens that are one of the leading causes of malnutrition and death for children younger than five. Moreover, the punishing work schedule necessary for subsistence left Gabriela no time to be a parent, and Ana Daniel was at risk of being locked alone at home, with no one to care for her.

Read the whole paper [PDF] and mull over the authors' ideas on ways to solve these problems.

And here is the rest of it.

Denier Cricket

2008-04-06T08:57:00.005+12:00

As kids, on long car journeys, my friends and I would amuse ourselves with a game called Car Cricket. The rules were pretty simple: watch the traffic heading in the other direction, every vehicle that passed was a ball. If it was a green car you got a single. If it was blue you got two runs. A yellow car scored you three and a truck of any colour was a boundary (4 runs). If a bus passed you got a 6. But if a white car passed you, you were out, and it was your friend's turn to bat

Nowadays, on long climate change threads, I amuse myself with a similar sport: denier cricket.

The rules remain simple. Each comment from a denier/sceptic is a ball. The following run schedule applies (note that some comments will blend multiple arguments, in this instance simply take the highest scoring argument):

No Runs
Many leading scientists question climate change / It's all a conspiracy

1 Run
In the 1970s scientists predicted global cooling
Computer Models can't be trusted
C02 isn't the most important Greenhouse Gas
Human emissions of C02 aren't significant compared to natural emissions

2 Runs
The 'Hockey Stick' is broken
The Medieval Warm Period
The Earth's climate has always changed

3 Runs
We can easily adapt
We're better spending the money on other things
We can't trust climate models

4 Runs
It's the Urban Heat Island Effect
Satellites show cooling
The Sun did it!/Sun spots!/Cosmic Rays, Cosmic Rays!

6 Runs
The Earth's climate stopped warming in 1998
CO2 lags temperatures in ice cores

No Ball (you can't go out on this comment/ you get 1 additional run added to what you would have scored otherwise)
Any comment that violates Gore's Law.

Wide (you can't go out on this comment/ you get 1 additional run added to what you would have scored otherwise)
Any comment with some form of Tu Quoque argument or ad hominem attack on climate scientists.

Out! (in the longer test match version of the game)
Any comment that mentions Christopher Monckton by name or which links to an article by him.

Out! (in the shorter one day event)
Any comment that mentions Monckton, Fred Singer, Bob Carter, Jennifer Marohasy or Climate Audit.

This morning, at the PCG, I've already knocked up 18 runs including a 6 off the very first ball...

On a misty Sunday morning in Wellington...

2008-04-06T08:10:00.002+12:00

...there have to be better things to do than debate climate change.

But, hey, I plead the XKCD defence.

So here we go.

Unafraid of waking the neighbours on a Sunday morning, Poneke has a post up loudly declaring the global temperatures stopped rising in 1998; and claiming that this fact devastates the case for anthropogenic global warming.

Okey dokey.

Here's my reply (repasted here so my links make it past Poneke's spam filter).

Gosh, I’m hardly awake myself and all of a sudden my pager is blurting noise. Mullah Gore has detected some climate change denial in my quadrant and it’s up to me to silence it. I tell you the hours in this job are lousy. Good thing I am a zealot.

Poneke,

On any given day or any given year numerous factors contribute to global temperature. We are worried about human Greenhouse Gas (GHGs) emissions because they are very likely to lead to a trend of increased temperatures globally*. Such a trend will not be a perfectly linear increase because GHG’s are only one contributing factor to temperature. Amongst this signal we’ll see plenty of noise. The noise which caught your ear this morning is, for the most part, a product from the El Nino/La Nina cycle you talk about. 1998 was an exceptionally hot year because of the powerful El Nino effect that year.

In the Hadley Centre dataset 1998 was the hottest year since records began. In NASA’s dataset 2005 was. In both datasets, if you eyeball a graph of averaged temperatures, this means you’ll see a ‘dip’ or plateau in temperatures this millennium. However, in either dataset, if you place in trend lines the trend (the signal without the noise) is still one of warming.

You will also notice, if you look at a graph of temperature trends since 1975, that there have been two other similar dips. And then the rise continues.

Now, if our ‘dip’ continues for another 10 years, then we’ll have reason to believe that there is something missing in our understanding of the globe’s climate. But until then it simply isn’t accurate to claim that global warming has stopped.

Oh, and no one in the World Meteorological Association is going to be called a denier for the simple reason that the don’t deny anthropogenic climate change. From Reuters:

OSLO (Reuters) - Climate change is still nudging up temperatures in the long term even though the warmest year was back in 1998 and 2008 has begun with unusual weather such as a cool Pacific and Baghdad’s first snow in memory, experts said.

“Global warming has not stopped,” said Amir Delju, senior scientific coordinator of the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) climate program.

Last year was among the six warmest years since records began in the 1850s and the British Met Office said last week that 2008 will be the coolest year since 2000, partly because of a La Nina event that cuts water temperatures in the Pacific.

“We are in a minor La Nina period which shows a little cooling in the Pacific Ocean,” Delju told Reuters. “The decade from 1998 to 2007 is the warmest on record and the whole trend is still continuing.”
_____________________________
*And remember here, that global means global. Temperatures in specific locations may perform quite differently.

Two things to make you smile over the weekend...

2008-04-05T16:13:00.005+13:00

To make up for the fact that my last post was probably one of the most dull ever written for the internet here's two things to laugh at care of XKCD.

(link: here)

(link: here)

Hat tip: Deltoid.

What's the Matter with Utilitarianism

2008-04-04T11:11:00.004+13:00

To me utilitarianism is the least worst political philosophy, but it's not without problems. The one that I find most troubling being that Utilitarianism leaves no place for justice at a philosophical level. That's not to say that, for rule utilitarians at least, there's not space for something resembling justice in practice (in the long run we all benefit from having a just social contract). But justice is there simply because it helps make us all better off; not because it is right to put wrongs to right.

Consider the following hypothetical example:

Race A colonised the land of Race B. Much injustice was done. Eventually Race A formed a majority of the population. Years later the country starts to address its past. An act utilitarian would be guided in this process by the belief that we should undertake those acts that lead to the greatest wellbeing (so quite possibly no redress). A rule utilitarian might decide that compensation is part of a just social contract and even if the majority don't benefit from this in the short run, because in the long run we are all better off with such a social contract in place. But, while this might look like justice - it is not justice for justice's sake. And this seems troubling.

Hunger

2008-04-03T18:47:00.004+13:00

Here in the New Zealand blogosphere (not to mention the media, more generally) this has been much talk of the rise in price of basic goods - cheese seems to excite the lefty bloggers I read the most.

In the developing world the same rise in commodity prices is being felt too, but with much greater consequences.

Paul Krugman writes:

The financial crisis gets most of the attention from the business press — but in terms of sheer human impact, the current food crisis may well be a bigger deal.

Governments across the developing world are scrambling to boost farm imports and restrict exports in an attempt to forestall rising food prices and social unrest.
…
The moves mark a rapid shift away from protecting farmers, who are generally the beneficiaries of food import tariffs, towards cushioning consumers from food shortages and rising prices.

But economists warned that such actions risked provoking an upward spiral in global food prices, which have already been pushed higher by rising demand from emerging markets like China and India and pressure on land from the growing production of bio-fuels.

What I don’t quite understand is why food prices have spiked so dramatically. Demand has been rising for a number of years; bio-fuels is a big thing, but how much bigger is it this year than a year or two ago? It can’t be speculation: that raises prices by inducing stockpiling, and stocks of wheat and rice are at or near record lows.

Important stuff. We need to figure this out.

We do. My understanding is that part of the reason for the spike is drought in several key producing areas. Even without this though, the rise in demand stemming from China and India means, as best as I can tell, that we are either in desperate need of a new Green Revolution or a major change in consumption patterns. Of course, for us in the developed world (or at least those of us not in poverty) price signals will do some of the job. But by then it may well be too late for the people whose starvation means little more to us than the time it takes to watch a 30 second news item.

Best Comment Ever

2008-04-03T18:36:00.001+13:00

Well on this blog at least. Thanks Yves!

*And I'm not saying the other comments are bad either but this one is pretty substantive, I think.

Climate Fallacies Debunked Funnily (an ongoing series)

2008-04-02T13:27:00.004+13:00

A classic claim from climate quacks is that, because CO2 rises lag behind temperature rises in ice core records, C02 produced by human activities can't possibly be contributing to climate change. A nice sensible explanation of why this is nonsense can be read here. But if you prefer a chuckle with your debunking, you won't find any better than this piece of pure joy from Tim Lambert's Deltoid.

CO2, warming, and causality
Category: Global Warming
Posted on: March 31, 2008 10:47 PM, by Tim Lambert

z, in comments:

"CO2 is not causing global warming, in fact, CO2 is lagging temperature change in all reliable datasets. "

See also my forthcoming paper: "Chickens do not lay eggs, because they have been observed to hatch from them".

Valve-broken

2008-04-01T20:02:00.006+13:00

It wasn't that long ago that I wrote a post on how good it was to be largely free of the symptoms of Reactive Arthritis. I spoke to soon, I guess. Some time over the last few years, inflammation has damaged the aortic valve from my heart. It is now leaking, causing my heart to stretch. And I need the valve replaced before my heart itself is damaged. Valve replacement is open heart surgery but the risk of serious complications is small. If things go ok I can expect a 1-3 month recuperation period and a more or less normal life afterwards. If I stay within the public system I can expect to wait between 6 and 9 months for surgery.

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't anxious, or disappointed - the need for surgery has derailed what were looking to be exciting plans for the year. But, of course, things could be worse.

Anyhow, I intend to write more here about events as they unfold. I do get the odd person coming through to this site who has Reactive Arthritis, so maybe my experiences might be useful. You can reciprocate too. Any experiences of open heart surgery (doesn't have to be stemming from arthritis, or even valve replacement) are much appreciated in the comments box below.

[Update: If you do read this and have Reactive Arthritis - don't worry. Heart problems are a very, very rare complication of Reactive Arthritis. A rheumatologist friend of mine described my situation as a 'textbook complication that you only ever see in textbooks'. So the odds of you encountering similar problems to me are small.]

Oh - and I think there may be a couple of people from work and the immediate surrounds who read this blog. My need for surgery isn't a secret, but it isn't public knowledge yet either (partially because I can't really figure a way of telling people...)

The Times They are a Changing

2008-04-01T19:58:00.002+13:00

On the bus home from work today I overheard a Maori gentleman chatting in Te Reo - to his Pakeha friend.

Gore's Law In Action

2008-03-30T18:12:00.013+13:00

Readers of my last post, on the subject of Gore's Law, may have been of the mistaken impression that Gore's law only apples to blog comments boxes. Kiwi blogger David Farrar aptly demonstrates that this is not the case, flying into action in the first half of the first sentence of an actual blog post:

Like a medieval religious zealot, Al Gore claims that those who still doubt that global warming is caused by man are the equivalent of those who think the moon landing was faked.

A medieval religious zealot? I was unaware that the moon landing was actually an issue in the Middle Ages. Oh well...

DPF continues:

Scientific debate is in fact the exact opposite of lunatic conspiracy theories.

True enough, but are climate change 'sceptics' really engaged in a scientific debate? Hardly. While there are uncertainties, there is next to no disagreement amongst climatologists about the fact that current climate change is human induced and a real concern. There is no real debate. What we have instead is climate 'sceptics' grasping at any evidence whatsoever that appears to support their theories though while diligently ignoring everything else. And this is something they have in common with conspiracy theorists.

Indeed, DPF himself, while grudgingly acknowledging that there is "fairly wide consensus that greenhouse gas emissions contribute to warming" attempts to counter this concession by emphasising uncertainties using a quote from an article in the Australian. The quote's from an interview with Jennifer Marohasy in which Ms Marohasy claims that new satellite data and recent temperature trends provide us reason to doubt the danger presented by climate change.

Marohasy is not a climatologist, of course, and her employer has a rather comfortable relationship with oil companies, but none of this would matter if her claims were actually right. The trouble is, they're not. She's not credible, her claims are wrong and one has to wonder why, out of all the good information on climate change on the internet, DPF had to choose her as a source. In doing so he certainly did nothing to counter Al Gore's supposition about climate 'sceptics' and conspiracy theorists.

[Update: Edited second to last paragraph for clarity]

Gore's Law

2008-03-29T11:19:00.008+13:00

In 1990 Internet Lawyer and writer Mike Godwin gave the world Godwin's law, stating that:

As a Usenet discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches one.

The rise and rise of Internet Climate 'sceptic' nonsense means it's time for an update.

Gore's Law

As an online climate change debate grows longer, the probability that denier arguments will descend into attacks on Al Gore approaches one.

Have a look. This Hot-Topic thread begins to Gore after about 21 comments. While this Poneke thread is Gored badly almost from the start. There's plenty of Goring going on in this thread too. And some organisations, such as the Competitive Enterprise Institute have grabbed both horns, so to speak, and Gore right from the outset.

Here's a hint. Al Gore could be short, evil and fond of child sacrifice. He could emit more CO2 snoring at night than Christopher Monckton does all year. And his movie could be even more inaccurate than the Great Global Warming Swindle. But this wouldn't change a thing. What matters is not Al Gore's character but science. And, in the case of climate change, it's awfully compelling.

[Update: And, not willing to wait until the comments box, David Farrar Gores hard right at the outset in his latest piece of climate blather.]

Cool New Blog

2008-03-24T21:02:00.002+13:00

Really, there's not much need for any fanfare when I add a new link to my link list. I'm hardly going to be directing tonnes of traffic in their direction. Still, I just wanted to say that The Hand Mirror is cool.

The Parable of the Little Boy Who Watched Adults Avoiding the Wolf Once too Often

2008-03-24T18:39:00.004+13:00

Poneke makes use of a poorer than average review by John Lancaster to sneer at media and government overreactions to the Y2K Bug scare.

She’s almost right: the scent of possible catastrophe sent much of the media into a feeding frenzy. Their tales and fins thrashed the water as they competed for chunks of impending doom. And this didn’t do much to add to clarity on the actual issues.

I even recall reading somewhere (possibly in Nexus in which case it serves me right) an alarming passage on how Y2K might cause the silicon chips in milk cartons to malfunction! Even as a much more credulous younger man, I still wondered about that a bit. I mean, what role does a silicon chip in a milk carton actually play? And, if it suddenly ends up in a muddle over dates, how disastrous can that actually be? Still, that didn’t stop me from racing home at 11:59pm on New Year's eve and eagerly watching the fridge (from a vantage point behind the couch) hoping to learn just what the problem was.

But Poneke is also wrong in chastising the world’s governments for taking action. And this, I think, is symptomatic of an all too common problem. When a threat arises, be it bird flu, or SARS or Y2K, and when we take action to prevent it from leading to catastrophe, the fact that a catastrophe doesn’t occur doesn’t mean that we were wrong to take action. Showing that a catastrophe didn’t occur isn't the same as showing that it wouldn’t had we not acted. And it seems particularly arrogant to criticise those people who may have stopped it from occurring because, hah hah, it didn’t occur. Even when action was, ultimately, not necessary this doesn’t mean that – in a world of risk and uncertainty – we were wrong to follow the precautionary principle either.

Special Muriel Newman Bonus Bonus

2008-03-24T14:22:00.003+13:00

A couple weeks ago Muriel Newman's breathless report back from the very exciting climate change denial conference she attended in New York made its way in a slightly edited form into the Dompost (Welington's local paper). It's futile, but I couldn't resist - so I wrote a letter to the Dom. I don't think they've published it, but I don't read the Dom enough to know for sure.

Anyhow, here's the first draft of the letter (I shortened it a bit to meet the Dom's word limit).

In her oped ‘Climate Change: we didn’t do it’ Muriel Newman breathlessly informs us that “[l]ast week 500 people, including 200 leading climate scientists and economists, gathered in New York to address the question of whether manmade global warming is really threatening the existence of our planet”. Reading over the misconceptions and factual errors in the rest of her column it’s hard to escape the feeling that there must have been an awful lot of economists at the conference.

Newman, for example, writes that, “[s]ince 1934 has emerged as the warmest year in recent times, manmade greenhouse gas emissions cannot possibly be to blame.” Globally, 1934 was not – by a long shot – the warmest year in recent times. It was probably the warmest year in the United States, but there’s a reason why the word ‘global’ is included in global warming – because the phenomenon has to do with temperatures for the globe as a whole. And globally temperatures have risen significantly since the 1930s. It’s true that there was a period of cooling over the middle part of last century but the reason for this is – aerosol pollution – is well known and the trend does not disprove the theory that the current episode of climate change is human driven.

Newman also claims that some of the temperature rises reported on by the IPCC are the result of the urban encroachment on previously rural temperature stations. How then does Ms Newman explain the rise in temperatures recorded by satellites? God only knows our cities are sprawling, but not that far.

Just to be clear, that isn't an attack on economists in the first paragraph. I'm just pondering how so many experts could know so darn little about the Earth's climate.

Special Muriel Neuman Sea Level Bonus

2008-03-18T13:02:00.003+13:00

In her online opinion piece on climate change Muriel Newman states with some confidence that:

Predictions of dramatic sea level rises were categorically discredited. The sea has been rising by a constant 18cm a century (1.8mm a year) and is thought to be driven by the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The fact that this started an estimated 18,000 years ago and is expected to continue for another7000 years shows that humans are not to blame!

Compare this with someone who has the unfair advantage of actually knowing what they are talking about:

But around 18,000 years ago earth began to deglaciate, bringing us to the present interglacial. As a result, sea level rose about 120 m over a span of about 10,000 years, albeit irregularly...The situation began to stabilize around 8,000 years ago, with a much slower rate of change, and about 2,000 years ago even greater stability became the order of the day. Sea level is believed to have been remarkably constant from the 1st century until the 19th; studies from a number of geographically diverse regions provide convincing evidence that the rate of change was no greater than 0.2 mm/yr. This situation remained in effect until the middle of the 19th century, when sea level began to rise; since then it’s risen at an average rate of around 1.5 mm/yr, although the rate has been variable.

Quack!

Bank Run!!!!!

2008-03-18T12:54:00.002+13:00

Not a high street bank this time, but essentially the same thing. Right now, the Fed and big players such as JP Morgan are doing their best to stop the US financial system from going off the edge. They're struggling. If they fail, as best as I can tell, we're looking at a mess of a scale not seen since the 1920s. I don't own shares, I don't own a house, I'm still worried.

Must Read, Must Read...

2008-03-16T16:06:00.000+13:00

Johann Hari on child slavery.

I'm not supposed to be blogging but...

2008-03-15T16:57:00.003+13:00

...Muriel Newman is quacking and it's hard to resist.

A conservative friend of the family recently sent me an email that was more or less a cut and paste of this post from Ms Newman's website.

I replied as follows:

That's an interesting email. It's also rather misleading. I'm not a climatologist and when I can spot elementary errors it leaves me inclined to think that the person who wrote it probably isn't qualified to comment on climate science.

Here's a couple of problems with the email.

1. They write: "Scientists have shown that in the earth’s geological past, concentrations of carbon dioxide have been up to 20 times higher than they are at present and temperatures have been considerably warmer."

Personally, I doubt the 20 times higher figure but it's possible, the Earth has a long history. Humans have only been around for a very short part of it; human civilisation for even less. And that's the point: it's true that temperatures have been considerably warmer in the distant past. So warm, in fact, that Crocodile like creatures lived close to the arctic circle. Which is good news for crocodile like creatures but rather disastrous for us humans - do you really think that we could endure this level of climate change (rendering most of the world's temperate zones uninhabitable) without huge suffering. The other point that the author is trying to make, of course, is that because the historical climate variations have been greater than those observed at present, then current variation may not be natural. This is incorrect. We know, thanks to basic atmospheric physics that - everything else being equal - more CO2 in the atmosphere will lead to higher temperatures. We know CO2 levels are rising (thanks to undisputed measurements). We know thanks to Carbon Isotope measures that human activity is causing this rise. We also know that temperature is rising. And, no known combination of known climate forcings which excludes the input of CO2 can explain this observed rise. In other words: the Earth has warmed naturally in the past; it is warming now - this is not natural.

2. They then write: "The two most recent warming periods occurred during Roman Times from 200BC to 600 AD and Medieval Times from 900AD to 1300AD, when Greenland was green and grapes grew in England. The Little Ice Age followed." This is simply not true. In some climate reconstructions the medieval warm period is close to being as warm in present (in most it's not even close); however, in no reconstruction is it warmer than present. Grapes, I might add, still grow in England. And Greenland was never green. Leif Erikson (or Eric the red - I get the two mixed up) named it Greenland to attract other settlers to the continent - one of history's oldest real estate swindles.

3. They then write: "Current temperature trends show a warm period between 1920 and 1940, followed by a cooling phase. There was a sudden warming surge from 1976 to 1978 and another in 1998. Since then the weather has been cooler." The cooling phase was caused by aerosol pollution - as countries tightened up on this (through clean air acts and the like) temperatures began to warm again. The 'surge' up to 1998 was caused by abnormally high temperatures in that year - a result of El Nino. All of this is common knowledge. That no one at the conference bothered to mention it makes me wonder about the credibility of the experts present.

4. They then write: "The year 1934 has emerged as the warmest of the 20th century." This, if I recall correctly, is also false. 1934 was the warmest year on record *in the United States*. It's called global warming for a reason - and the United States is not the globe.

5. I could go on, but dinner awaits. I will note on thing though - the IPPC does not run its own research. It assesses all the peer-reviewed research currently available. Its conclusions reflect the state of the science - not one conference run by an organisation that gets a bundle of money from Exxon Mobil and which has its own ideological bone to pick.

Anyhow, it was an interesting email, so thanks for that. Speaking of a warm climate, lovely weather today no?

cheers

Terence

They then posted my reply on Ms Newman's website. And she replied (and I received the reply via email from the family friend).

Here's my reply:

Thanks for your reply. I take it that the message is actually from Muriel Newman and that she has replied on a forum where you pasted the contents of myf first email?

Also I need to apologise in advance for two things:
1. My reply will be brief.
2. This is going to be my last reply on this subject matter.

As I'm sure you can appreciate, I have quite a lot on my plate at present and I could do with relaxing at least some of this weekend (1 day is already liekly lost to work), and while debating climate change can be enjoyable, it isn't relaxing.

Greenland
Ms Newman is right: medieval Norse settlers in the sourthen coastal regions of Greenland did indeed graze cattle and grow crops. Grazing and agriculture - and the Norse settlers - were put paid by the Little Ice Age, where temperatures were significantly cooler than during either the Medieval Warm Period or the present day. Does this mean that the Medieval Warm Period was warmer than today? No. First Greenland is only 1 country (and remember we're talking about *global warming* here). Second, my understanding is that the current climate in southern Greenland is once again warm enough to support such agriculture. The reason it is not is because, thanks to the wonders of globalisation, it's far more efficient for Greenlanders to import such food (a good example of comparative advantage Ricardo style.)

The Hockey Stick
Mann et al's 'Hockey Stick' climate reconstruction has most certainly not been "well and truly discredited". It has been challenged, but these challenges themselves are of questionable merit. If you are interested you can read about the errors in McIntyre & McKitrick's putative refutation of the hockey stick here: http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/03/06/pca-part-4-non-centered-hockey-sticks/

Let us, for argument's a sake, assume that the Mann et al's reconstruction was wrong, however. Would that disprove the theory that current climate change stems from predominantly human sources? In a word: no. For a start Mann is not the only person working on historical climate records. If you go to the following link you can look at the various credible climate reconstructions of the last 2000 years super imposed on the same graph:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:2000_Year_Temperature_Comparison.png

Some of these are Mann's work but the majority are not. You will notice, of course, that in none of the reconstructions does the Medieval Warm Period come close to being as warm as current temperatures. Even if Mann's hockey stick graph was to be discredited this would do nothing to change this fact.

It is also worth noting that, even if all these reconstructions were wrong, this still wouldn't prove that current warming was not human generated. As I said in my last email, we know from basic physics that, everything else being equal, if CO2 levels in the atmosphere rise, temperatures will follow. We know that CO2 levels are rising. We know from Carbon Isotope measures that we are the source of this CO2. And we know that temperatures are also rising. This alone is reason for considerable concern.

The Relationship Between CO2 and Temperature in the Paleoclimate Record
Ms Newman is broadly correct when she says that CO2 lags behind temperature through much of the paleoclimate record. She misses the point here though. Prior to technology providing humans with the means to alter the Earth's climate, changes in the Earths climate were probably - in the first instance - primarily driven by orbital variations or fluctuations in solar activity. These initial temperature variations are likely to have then triggered a feedback process through which CO2 was released into the atmosphere (possibly from warming oceans). This then exacerbated the initial warming trends leading to the large variations in temperature visible in the paleoclimate record. This is is interesting but does nothing to disprove the theory of AGW. Recent observed solar fluctuations do not correspond to global temperature trends (the graph Ms Newman shows is long refuted and only tracks the US temperature record, anyhow). And, as I noted above, we have definitive proof of the fact that the rise in CO2 in the atmosphere is caused by human activity (i.e. it's not part of some feedback loop).

The Impact of Human CO2 Emissions verses Natural Quantities of CO2 in the Atmosphere
I have not had time to check the numbers that Ms Newman quotes from Robinson et al and it would not surprise me if they are wrong. Nevertheless, the basic point stands. Compared to quantities of CO2 to be found naturally in the atmosphere and biosphere, human emission levels are not large. But the important point is that naturally, over a period of broadly stable temperatures, naturally occurring CO2 is in balance. Sources of emission are countered by sources of absorption. The criticical thing here is that we humans are disrupting this balance. That is all that is required to trigger climate change.

I hope that this is of some help to you.

Terence

Blogging will resume...

2008-03-11T19:34:00.002+13:00

...shortly I hope. In the meantime try: Middle East peace - it sounds so simple when you put it this way.

Common Sense On Anti-Depressants

2008-02-27T19:59:00.002+13:00

Between Russell Brown and Ben Goldacre you'll find more sense on anti-depressants than anywhere else right now.

Trunk Monkey

2008-02-26T13:46:00.001+13:00

Thank you Brad Delong. This is wonderful.

A Must Read

2008-02-25T19:21:00.002+13:00

Via Dani Rodrik we have Pranab Bardhan writing in the Boston Review, explaining why the conventional wisdom on the politics and economics of India and China is wrong. It's a must read for anyone who is interested in the development of these two countries.

Yup

2008-02-23T20:15:00.004+13:00

"If I really wanted to waste my time," the T-Shirt says, "I'd be arguing on the internet".

Ignoring everything I wrote, Poneke continues with zeal (not to mention a persecution complex) and I'm tempted to keep arguing...but what's the point. And mores the point, do we really gain much debating online? At times in the past, on the best threads, I feel like I have learnt things. But even then I've never really escaped the nagging doubt that there must be better ways I could spend my time.

(from the comments box at Crooked Timber; I don't know who drew it)
(update: the comic's creator is XKCD - thanks Tussock)

Insight?

2008-02-22T20:42:00.005+13:00

Rightwing newspaper the National Business Review has discovered aid and development. As one might expect the results aren't pretty nor, despite the name of the blog in question, in any way insightful.

Social Democrats rate countries on their foreign aid donations, which is why rich Nordic nations are held up as exemplars.

...and there I was thinking that the Nordic countries' domestic social models had something to do with Social Democrats love for them. As for rating countries on their foreign aid donations, the people who do the most of the OECD. The OECD aren't exactly a Social Democrat pressure group as far as I'm aware - their main interest in rating countries is holding their wealthier members to the commitment, made in 1970 and reaffirmed several times since, to giving 0.7% of GNI as aid.

But foreign aid statistics throw up some strange facts: the US, Japan and the countries of western Europe give by far the most.

...which is solely because these countries have larger GNI's. It's easier for them to give more - because they are bigger. But in terms of effort (what they give as a proportion of what they could give) the USA ranks down the bottom of the OECD donor countries.

But Swedish economist Stefan Karlsson has estimated the largest is, in fact, China based on its low yuan policy of transferring vast amounts of wealth to foreign countries by undercharging for its exports.

...Swede? I think we're more likely to be dealing with a turnip. China's undervalued yuan isn't an aid programme. It is, in effect, a subsidy for Chinese businesses. Sure this makes its exports cheaper. And sure consumers in other countries benefit from this. But producers don't - it undermines their ability to compete. And for most developing countries, which need to produce something before they can start consuming, this simply holds back their development.

The US Institute of Peace calculates that Palestinians, better known for their terrorism, are the world’s largest recipients of foreign aid per capita.

No they don't, they state the Palestinians were the largest recipients of foreign aid per capita. (Aid was curtailed once the Palestinians elected Hamas). You've got to love the logic though. Some Palestinians are terrorists. Therefore no Palestinians are human. Therefore aid given to Palestinians is not humanitarian. Yup, we're orbiting in the outer edges of the lunisphere now.

The debate over the effectiveness of government aid has long been a topic of concern to economists, with the most compelling criticism coming from Professor William Easterly, of New York University.

William Easterly does offer a credible critique of the way that much aid is given (he still supports its giving though) but Easterly's arguments are far from perfect.

Finally, the article criticises NZAID (our government aid body) on the weight of the auditor general's report. But this report, while identifying some real accounting issues, doesn't change the fact that - as the Council for International Development notes - NZAID's actual aid giving practices are universally considered to be some of the best in the world.

Aid and development are complicated topics and if this is the depth with which they are going to be addressed it would be better if the NBR simply didn't bother.

Post-structuralism

2008-02-21T21:30:00.004+13:00

Martha Nussbaum has a wonderful take down of Judith Butler here (PDF). I want to write some more about it but not tonight.

Quackidy quack, quack, quack

2008-02-21T18:36:00.006+13:00

It looks like a duck. It quacks like a duck. Yip. It's another Poneke post extolling the virtue of climate, cough, scepticism.

I replied in comments. I'm reposting my reply here because Poneke's spam filter appears to be zapping link-rich comments, and reposting here seems like the best way of providing some references to my claims while not getting zapped.

My comment is below but, before I start, I do want to acknowledge one thing: Poneke is a great writer and has an excellent blog (climate lunacy notwithstanding). I wanted to mention this because I only ever comment on Poneke's* climate change stuff here, and that's not a complete representation of the quality of his/her blogging.

==My Comment==

Here we go...

Many eminent scientists continue to be concerned at the media and political hysteria that rages around the climate change issue.

Not true. The vast majority of climate scientists are concerned not by media and political hysteria on climate change but rather the fact that we are failing to take action to prevent it. Can you name me 10 climate scientists (defined as people trained in climatology with peer reviewed papers in respected climate journals) who share the views of Linzden?

One of them is Richard S Lindzen, the Alfred P Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

And seeing as Lindzen feels free to speculate on the motives of other climate scientists let us return the favour. From PBS:

Dr. Lindzen has claimed in Newsweek and elsewhere that his funding comes exclusively from government sources, but he does not seem to include speaking fees and other personal compensation in this statement. Ross Gelbspan, who did some of the first reporting on climate skeptics' links to industry, wrote in Harper's Magazine in 1995: "[Lindzen] charges oil and coal interests $2,500 a day for his consulting services; his 1991 trip to testify before a Senate committee was paid for by Western Fuels, and a speech he wrote, entitled 'Global Warming: the Origin and Nature of Alleged Scientific Consensus,' was underwritten by OPEC."

Dr. Lindzen is a member of the Advisory Council of the Annapolis Center for Science Based Public Policy, which has received large amounts of funding from ExxonMobil and smaller amounts from Daimler Chrysler, according to a review Exxon's own financial documents and 990s from Daimler Chrysler's Foundation. Lindzen is a also been a contributor to the Cato Institute, which has taken $90,000 from Exxon since 1998, according to the website Exxonsecrets.org and a review Exxon financial documents. He is also a contributor for the George C. Marshall Institute.

You write:

“Climate is always changing,” he writes. “We have had ice ages, and warmer periods when alligators were found in Spitzbergen.

Yes but at present no known natural phenomenon can explain the current change and we know, thanks to basic physics that, cetrus paribas, rising levels of C02 in the atmosphere will lead to higher temperature. And we know that C02 levels are increasing at unprecedented rates at present. And we know, thanks to Carbon Isotope measures, that human actions are causing this rise. So we have very strong reason to believe that the bulk of the current variation is not natural. And, therefore, that we can do something to arrest it.

As for 'gators at the poles, how cute. If Lindzen or anyone thinks that human civilization can survive a transition over the space of a couple of centuries to this sort of climate state without immense suffering they are dreaming.

You then write:

You won’t often read articles by outspoken climate scientists like Professor Lindzen in the daily news media

Not true. As Naomi Oreskes and others have shown, climate change "sceptics" get almost equal coverage in the mainstream media (see how often Lindzen et al get coverage in the WSJ for example). The one place they don't get such equality of coverage is in peer reviewed journals. This is for one simply reason: their science is bunk.

Then you write

I am not someone who would try to claim that the recent unusual cold snap in China, or the one in Greece (it was sno:wing, heavily, in Athens this week) are evidence against global warming, despite the tendency of climate change promoters to say every major storm or drought is proof of their position.

Once again, not true: you actually did something very similar several weeks ago with your ill-informed 'gotcha' post on the Wellington temperature record.

Then you write:

Global warming theory postulates a rise in average temperatures over a century, not a year. But I can’t help noticing the accumulating evidence that average global temperatures have not risen during all of this century, after rising in the decade beforehand, despite the rise in carbon dioxide emissions caused by the greatest economic growth the entire world has ever enjoyed.

Huh? Do you mean over the last hundred years? If so, then temperatures rose significantly over this period of time (careful to look for th right graph here). The did not rise over all of the last 100 years only because of the offsetting forcing of aerosol pollution. Something that is well known.

Still at least you and Reid have found a conspiracy theory you can agree upon. :)

P.S I'm going to repost this comment at my blog, with links. That way those who are interested can check my claims while I avoid the risk that your spam filter nabs the links here.

_______________________
*Update: Gender specific term modified - thanks George.

Drug Research

2008-02-20T13:14:00.003+13:00

Dean Baker makes the case for the government being the primary funder of medical research:

The place to start is through public financing of clinical drug trials. This is by far the most corrupt part of the drug development process, since clinical test results are most immediately associated with the approval and marketing of drugs. If the tests can be taken out the control of drug companies who have a direct material stake in their outcome, it will remove the major source of corruption in the prescription drug industry.
The government can appropriate a sum of money approximately equal to what the industry now spends on clinical trials (around $20bn a year). It can then arrange long-term contracts (10-12 years) with independent testing firms, who would then decide which drugs to test. Renewal and expansion of the contracts would depend on the effectiveness of the contractor in finding and testing new drugs and preventing unsafe drugs from coming to market.

The government should impose strict rules on the contractors to prevent the sort of abuses that we currently see in the industry. First, there should be no overlap of financial interests between the firms doing the testing and the drug companies. All communications between the two, for example petitions to test a particular drug, should be in the form of public documents posted on the internet. Any other contact should be treated the same way as if a lawyer contacts a sitting juror in a pending case - it's called "jury tampering" and you spend years in jail for doing it.

Also, all the data from the tests must be publicly posted on the internet. This will allow any researcher anywhere in the world to independently analyze the data. This should substantially reduce the likelihood of mistakes or misrepresentations of results.
It would also enormously facilitate comparative effectiveness assessments of different drugs. This will allow for much better and more timely research.

A more honest system with fewer incentives to cheat.

An important additional argument, I think, is that such a system could also be a big improvement on the current state of play where rewards to investment in research on new medication are provided primarily through patents. By allowing companies that develop drugs monopoly pricing for a period of time, patents are supposed to provide incentives to research and allow drug companies to recuperate the costs of such research. Yet, patents contribute to grossly inflated prices for new drugs (such as Herceptin) and also to critically needed medication being denied to the world's poor.

If we were to nationalise the research process this would remove the needs for patents. And the problems that come with them.

Feeling Bad, Feeling Better

2008-02-14T20:42:00.006+13:00

A couple of days ago my bus was late. I'm not a particularly patient person so instead of waiting I hopped on a No. 1. and got off at Island Bay. From there I walked. The walk wasn't bad, actually it was pretty good. 15 minutes up hill as suburbia did its best to put on a pleasant face in the lazy evening light.

A couple of years ago I tried a similar trick. My own bus had obviously vanished into a hole in the space time continuum somewhere along Lambton Quay so I caught the Number 1. My plan was different back then though - I figured I'd get off and call my girlfriend from the pay phone at the Island Bay shops. She could come and get me. The trouble was, the pay phone was broken and my plan derailed. Back then the hill up to my house stretched away like an unassailable alp. Climbing it would have taken me at least an hour and involved considerable pain. Fortunately, I was rescued by a friend who just happened to walk out of the library at the right moment allowing me to use her cell phone to call my partner.

A year before that I decided that my outdoors task for the day was to go and visit the library. I never got there. I couldn't get a park within a block of the library and couldn't bear the thought of hobbling two blocks on crutches.

Things aren't perfect now - I lost sleep last night to a gnawing pain in my back, my wrist is sore as I type this - but they are a lot better.

And that really counts. I'm stating the obvious but being mobile makes life a whole heap better, and happier. That's obvious but the strange thing is that it took me a long time to realise just how exhausted and disheartened acute arthritis left me. I'm really glad to be free of that burden for now. And really, really full of admiration for people who carry similar or much heavier ones. Now I've had my feet in those shoes I know just how uncomfortable they are.

Sorry!

2008-02-13T20:53:00.001+13:00

Finally.

Here's Bob Mould.

The Happy Australian

2008-02-10T15:03:00.000+13:00

From a recent paper by Angus Deaton we get this snapshot of reported happiness across age groups.

The results for New Zealand are similar to the other wealthy OECD papers. We see a U-shaped trajectory: the young and those of retirement age are happier than us middle-aged folk. It's easy enough to think of explanations for this, but what I don't get is why the trend isn't apparent in Australia. Australians appear to stay about as happy as they ever were throughout their lives.

Why??

Someone's been reading something?

2008-02-07T13:42:00.000+13:00

My partner and I are planning to get married sometime soonish. We've been using email and Facebook to let friends know. So far so non-blogworthy, but today I went to Amazon.com, logged in, and, to my surprise found - instead of the usual recommendations for dry political science texts - adverts for rings!

Possibly pure coincidence, but I wonder whether someone (Facebook probably) has been on-selling my data. They certainly don't promise not to in their terms and conditions.

Six Degrees

2008-02-07T13:32:00.000+13:00

Want an idea of what our world may be like up to six degrees warmer than it is at present? Have a watch of these short excerpts of the National Geographic film of the Mark Lynas's Book Six Degrees.

One Degree

Two Degrees

Three Degrees

Four Degrees

Five Degrees

Six Degrees

Obamamania

2008-02-05T12:53:00.000+13:00

Over at the Nation Christopher Hayes offers a more sober, video free, endorsement of Barak Obama:

Insofar as the issues discussed during a presidential campaign are circumscribed by the taboos and pieties of the political and media establishments, they tend to be dispiriting for those of us on the left. Neither front-runner is calling for the nation to renounce its decades-old imperial posture or to end the prison-industrial complex; neither is saying that America's suburbs and car culture are not sustainable modes of living in an era of expensive oil and global warming or pointing out that the "war on drugs" has been a moral disaster and strategic failure, with casualties borne most violently and destructively by society's most marginalized and--a word you won't be hearing from either candidate--oppressed. And yet, this election is far more encouraging (dare I say hopeful?) than any in recent memory. The policy agenda for the Democratic front-runners is significantly further to the left on the war, climate change and healthcare than that of John Kerry in 2004. The ideological implosion of conservatism, the failures of the Bush Administration and, perhaps most important, the shifts in public opinion in a leftward direction on war, the economy, civil liberties and civil rights are all coming together at the same time, providing progressives with the rare and historic opportunity to elect a President with a progressive majority and an actual mandate for progressive change.

The question then becomes this: which of the two Democratic candidates is more likely to bring to fruition a new progressive majority? I believe, passionately and deeply, if occasionally waveringly, that it's Barack Obama.

Read the rest.

Oh Heck Yes!

2008-02-04T20:59:00.000+13:00

Partly because someone in New Zealand has to join the You Tube Obamamania, and partly because it's a good excuse to muse some more, here's that video:

It's not that Obama's not without his faults (health care policy, university of Chicago economics advisers...). It's not that Obama is not without his risks (Hillary, whatever else you might say about her, has surely had all the skeletons pulled from her closet before now. That may not be the case with Obama).

It's just that Obama also brings with him potential. Or, at least, it really feels that way.

Potential in the first instance to beat McCain. McCain, remember, leads both Clinton and Obama in many of the polls. And I just can't see Clinton changing that. Obama though - he could generate the momentum.

Potential also, perhaps, to shift the polity in the US. And maybe make space for something more positive to grow.

The obvious analogy is Kennedy. It's an analogy that's fun to carry through too. Maybe Obama will win but won't actually change that much in terms of policy. But maybe he'll be the president which shifts the way the nation thinks just enough for his successor to force through the great society reforms so desperately needed again.[/totally crazy speculation]

Oh yeah, the speech is utterly meaningless. I did notice that. On about the second watch.

Prison by Numbers

2008-02-04T13:05:00.000+13:00

A little while ago No Right Turn linked to an Eric Schlosser article on the Prison Industrial Complex. The article is, as No Right Turn suggested, a must read.

Here's some numbers:

5,100: the number of volts administered by the 'death fence' around New Folsom prison.
2 to 1: the ratio of prisoners in California's prisons to the capacity they were designed for.
8 to 1: the ratio of the number of prisoners currently held in Californian prison system compared to the number 20 years ago.
6: California houses more prisoners than the following six countries combined: France, Great Britain, Germany, Japan, Singapore, and the Netherlands.
1.8 million: the number of people behind bars in the USA
50-80,000: the annual increase in the USA's prison population.
US$35 billion: the amount spent each year operating the US's prisons.
70: the percentage of prison inmates in the US are illiterate.
200,000: the number of US prisoners estimated to have a serious mental illness.
60-80: the percentage of the US prison population estimated to have a history of substance abuse.
80,000: the number of woman imprisoned in the United States.
70: the percentage of woman prisoners who are non-violent offenders.
75: the percentage of woman prisoners who have children.
1 out of every 14: African Americans men are currently in jail. 1 in 4 will end up in jail at some point in their lives.

What Have Unions Ever Done For Us?!?

2008-02-03T10:49:00.000+13:00

Via DailyKos, this is great. It's Australian but most of it's true (terminology differences aside) for us here in NZ

Clinton vs Obama

2008-02-03T10:01:00.000+13:00

Will someone please think of poor Matt Taibbi. The vacuity of the media's coverage of the Democratic primaries is driving him insane:

This relentless fragging from the media led to state of affairs in Iowa, in which all of the candidates were enjoined in a seemingly endless piss-fight over the most mind-numbing minutiae imaginable. Clinton and Obama spent days haggling bitterly over, of all things, tea. When Obama insisted that his foreign experience went beyond who "I had tea with," the Hillary camp actually went through the trouble of releasing a statement from Madeleine Albright insisting that Hillary, in fact, drank many different beverages in her travels.

He's right. With all the issues confronting the planet the banality of media coverage of the US elections is hard to stomach.

I'm still trying to figure out who to (hypothetically) support now that Edwards is out.

Paul Krugman's done more than enough to convince me that Obama's proposed health care reform package is inferior to Hillary's. But, on the other hand, Obama is much better on foreign policy (his lead adviser is Samantha Power!). And, courtesy of this fascinating post at Crooked Timber, we learn that Obama has a discernibly more liberal voting record in the senate (the actual axis is not quite liberal conservative, but close enough).(Click here to read the rest of this post...)

On the other hand, Obama is gathering his economic advisers (and, presumably, his bad advice on health care) from the University of Chicago.

On the other hand, I think he's more likely to beat McCain(?) than Hillary.

And that's still what tips it for me. Neither Hillary Clinton not Barack Obama has really great politics but, compared with "bomb, bomb, bomb, Iran" McCain, anyone's an improvement.

Finally, returning to trivia (justified by the New Zealand connection), here's Alan Thomas over at the Liberal Conspiracy:

He [Christopher Hitchens writing in Slate] begins with a small but telling anecdote from 1995 when, after meeting him, Clinton announced that her mother had named her after Sir Edmund Hillary. Of course, the only problem here is that Clinton was born in 1947 and Hillary’s name-making ascent of Mount Everest was in 1953. When challenged on this rather obvious fact, Clinton spokespeople palmed off the inconsistency on to Hillary’s mother, claiming she had made it up to inspire “greatness” in her daughter.

Quack? Quack, Quack. Quack! Quack! Quack, Quack, Quack!!!

2008-02-01T14:53:00.001+13:00

Years from now, when we are dealing with the consequences of anthropogenic global warming we will look back and wonder just how in God's name a supposedly reputable paper could publish nonsense like this in the name of forestalling action.

The article is so illogical it's actually hard to Fisk.

The core argument, as best I can determine, revolves not around science but around words.

Environmentalists, you see, use the term 'climate change' as shorthand for anthropogenic climate change. But, the writer informs us, the Earth's climate has always changed. Therefore the term 'climate change' is misleading. Therefore anthropogenic climate change is not real.

People also, we learn, talk about 'carbon trading' and 'carbon emissions'. This is misleading as carbon and carbon dioxide aren't the same thing and using the term carbon in place of carbon dioxide makes people think that a natural gas is a dirty pollutant. Therefore Carbon Dioxide emissions can't be causing climate change.

Arguing this is a bit like saying that people use the term radiation to refer to nuclear radiation. Therefore nuclear radiation is harmless. And, anyhow, radiation is natural, therefore it can't cause cancer.

Having wowed us with words, the oped concludes by telling us that relationship between rising CO2 and rising temperature is "a point of strong debate among climate scientists". After all the linguistics, a nice simple lie.

Why does this nonsense keep getting written? Why does it keep ending up in the Herald?

The Shorter Mike Moore

2008-02-01T14:38:00.000+13:00

Forcing the people behind anonymous well funded political smear campaigns to declare their names = silencing dissent.

Oh, and I am a very, very important thinker. I speak French and I has read Volataire.

In which the Lemonheads...

2008-01-28T20:54:00.000+13:00

...say it all

Test Post

2008-01-27T20:06:00.000+13:00

Hopefully this is above the fold.

And this is below.

What the Huck?!? Bill Ralston Edition

2008-01-27T11:53:00.000+13:00

Doing his bit for the long decline in public discourse on economics Bill Ralston tries to convince Herald readers of Labour's economic ineptitude.

Historians will look back in a couple of decades at the decline and fall of the Labour Government and lay much of the blame on Michael Cullen and his dead hand as Minister of Finance.
In his eight-year reign, the Government has amassed huge surpluses through over-taxation, putting pressure on the disposable incomes of already struggling households. His tolerance of high interest rates has strangled economic growth, his approval of record levels of Government spending has led to a huge growth in bureaucracy, waste and heavy compliance costs for business. His obstinate refusal to cut taxes will be seen as another long nail he inserted into the coffin of Helen Clark's three-term administration.
...

At the same time, voters will see 3.5-4 per cent inflation gnawing away at their income and savings while the value of their biggest asset, property, shrinks.

Far be it for me to critique the the arcane science of Ralstonomics but isn't there just a slender chance that interest rates are high because our economy is suffering inflationary pressures and that were it not for 'over taxation' both interest rates and inflation would be higher still. And I suppose it's just churlish to suggest that public spending isn't all about bureaucrats but also other things such as doctors and nurses. (Or that, in the case of the RMA, for example, more having bureaucrats actually helps reduce compliance costs).

What I would like to know though is what Bill Ralston, were he in Michael Cullen and Alan Bollard's shoes, would propose doing. Would he (the list is in decreasing order of plausibility):

Liberate Iraq to lower oil prices and reduce inflation?
Invade China to lower oil prices and reduce inflation?
Lower interest rates and reduce inflation? (While at the same time developing a perpetual motion machine to compliment his defiance of the laws of economics with equal defiance of the laws of physics)
Lower interest rates and taxes and reduce inflation? (While using the spinning corpse of JM Keynes to drill a hole to China to facilitate the invasion).

Ralston continues: (Click here to read the rest of this post...)

They [Labour] also triumphantly point to low unemployment, ignoring the fact that business is starved of labour and the high rate of employment is because more than a million Kiwis have fled to greener pastures overseas.

So what's he saying? That we should have high unemployment just so business can have surplus labour again. Boy that sounds like a vote winner.

I do have to concede that Ralston is right when he says that low unemployment only exists because 'more than a million' Kiwis have 'fled' overseas though. After all, as we all remember, when unemployment was through the roof in the late 80s and early 90s immigration was just so high and our population well over million more than it is today. Oh - hang on.

The economic genius of Ralstonnomics is not that it bares any relation to the real world but rather that he actually gets paid to write this stuff.

[Update: I added the bullet points this Monday morning; they weren't in the original post. Meanwhile Keith Ng engages in Ralson-watching par excellence at Public Address. As I said in comments under his post, public debate on economics in New Zealand would be much better served if Keith was a columnist for the Herald and Bill Ralston reduced to commenting on Deborah Coddington's blog]

The Case for Economic Debate

2008-01-26T12:35:00.000+13:00

No Right Turn has a link to an excellent Listener column by Brain Easton talking of the pros and cons of privatisation. Which reminded me of another recent Easton column on the quality of economic debate here in New Zealand.

Easton argues that:

The economic debate has moved from the general pages into the business section, limiting the public to the sterility of such questions as whether we should have tax cuts. There is no discussion about whether we have the production to pay for them. Celebrities and crime are given greater prominence. Occasionally, when there is a crisis, an economics story appears on the front page. The world financial system has been under severe stress since last August. But where do you see that mentioned in your paper, except when it gets close to home in the form of a local finance company collapse? Even then, little international context is given to the parochial story.
Instead of a vigorous public debate there is ignorance and self-promotion. Participants are out of touch with the general public. (Who would have guessed that a November AC Nielsen poll found those supporting increased public spending were more than double those prioritising tax cuts? The answer may be Helen Clark.) There are hardly any serious attempts to inform the public. We are back to the 1970s and 1980s: “Trust me – I am acting in your best interests.” Yeah, right.
When some hard decisions have to be made – and the international financial crisis is likely to require them – the public will be unprepared and uncomprehending, and will want to return to ineffective anti-market interventions.

My own personal fear is not so much of anti-market populism but rather of knee-jerk conservatism and blame the victimism when things go really wrong. But I do agree that New Zealand is incredibly poorly served by the quality of its public debate on economics. We have business groups with disproportionate voice, media conglomerates who (in the last election at least) appeared to be playing the role of the tax cut lobby, an unwillingness to discuss trad eoffs and an alarming degree of economic illiteracy in parts of the punditocracy. And we also have some major challenges ahead of us. Challenges which we will only overcome with sensible and inclusive economic debate in which the public can understand and own policy.

Here are two such challenges:

1. Climate Change: despite what proponents of extreme discounting think, people really do care about the fate of the planet and about the world they will bequeath to their descendants. The trouble with climate change policy though is that it requires short term costs for long term benefits. And this is something that is politically very hard to sell. Unless people have a real understanding of why policy is being made and why it is necessary. Right now, for the most part, all we get is anatomically inaccurate names for taxes and tractors on parliament.

2. Government spending: from health care to prisoner rehabilitation New Zealand struggles to deal with its social problems in part because we simply do not spend enough to tackle them. We don't spend enough because we don't have the tax revenue to do so. Now perhaps New Zealanders really prefer an individualist let them eat cake economy and low tax rates. Good for them if they do but, when discussing tax cuts (and why is it always tax cuts rather than tax raises?) let's at least openly examine the need for spending.

There are many more - the challenges of globalisation, local resource management, poverty - and the problem is that we just don't seem to be able to discuss these issues in a meaningful manner. (Not to mention race relations). And we really need to. At least if we want to continue inhabiting a country worth living in.

This is not an argument against the Electoral Finance Act

2008-01-26T11:37:00.000+13:00

New socialist blog, Socialist Democracy has a post up against the Electoral Finance Act.

Amongst other points they argue:

My friend Bryce Edwards over at liberation has already set out many of the arguments why increased regulation of the electoral process is not necessarily a good thing, pointing out for example that the United States despite having one of the most restrictive sets of electoral finance laws in the world still in[sic] the political sphere is completely dominated by the rich and powerful.

Such hand waving tells us little of use. For a start is says nothing about how much worse things might be if the Unites States had no legislation. (Click here to read the rest of this post...)

Also, the legislative process in the United States is dramatically different from our own, meaning that laws need to pass a bicameral legislature and the the executive before being enacted. And neither of the main political parties in the US has anything near the internal discipline of our own. This means that law-making in the USA is messy in the extreme, with compromises and exemptions being appended to many laws. In the case of electoral finance law this makes it likely that laws will be riddled with loop-holes and quite possibly ineffective.

Finally, the fact that US has a political elite that is incredibly powerful, wealthy and politically active means that - quite possibly - even the best laws won't work there. In New Zealand, which is still a very unequal country but nothing like the US in terms of political inequality, it is on the other hand possible that effective constraints can be put in place.

If you want to argue about the Electoral Finance Act leave the US out of it. Concentrate on what the act will do here. Will it achieve it's desired ends. Will it have unintended consequences. Is it going to impede on key political freedoms. Socialist Democracy do some of this later on in their post but I'm still not convinced.

As far as I can tell, the act - while flawed - will make it harder for the wealthy to unduly and anonymously skew our electoral process. Some of the unintended consequences are more concerning, but I certainly don't buy the curtailing free speech argument. People will be as free as they have always been to speak on political matters. What will be changed is the extent to which wealth can be used to project this speech - a different matter altogether.

Long Ago and Not True Anyway

Issue blogging again

Blog-gone

Development: what's the point?

Paul Krugman

Pick Me! Pick Me! Me! Me! me me meme

Interesting

Simply Because

Our leaders will save us...

Southerly Storm Blogging!

Abortion

Anti-Capitalism, Distopia and the Absense of the State

She'll be Right

Internet Argument

An interesting read

Asymmetric Information

The Butterfly Effect

Discounting

Really smart religious person thingy

Fun

Interesting

Chavez reconsidered, reconsidered

oh my

Freedom of Speach and its Discontents

MRI, where am I

Two Great Blogs

The African Economic Miracle?

William Easterly Jumps The Shark

Trade and International Development

Dueling with the Visible Hand (GST is regressive!)

Dueling with the Visible Hand (utilitarianism edition)

The Standard has the numbers on benefits...

Burke's Law*

You're Banned!!!!

The Tracks of my Tears

Links

To very, very good posts...

Chavez again...

Long May You Run (on three cylinders)

Blogs, Learning and the Minimum Wage

That does it! I'm leaving!!

Reminder

Utilitarianism Again

It's like raaaaiiiinnn on our wedding day

Oh my Gored

How many...

More Great Climate Change Humour...

Hmmm...

ha ha ha

An Angiogram

Less Loveable with Every Minute

Wings, Wings!

Yet another bookmark

Worth Reading

Monopsony in Labour Markets

Poverty, Gender and Development

Denier Cricket

On a misty Sunday morning in Wellington...

Two things to make you smile over the weekend...

What's the Matter with Utilitarianism

Hunger

Best Comment Ever

Climate Fallacies Debunked Funnily (an ongoing series)

Valve-broken

The Times They are a Changing

Gore's Law In Action

Gore's Law

Cool New Blog

The Parable of the Little Boy Who Watched Adults Avoiding the Wolf Once too Often

Special Muriel Newman Bonus Bonus

Special Muriel Neuman Sea Level Bonus

Bank Run!!!!!

Must Read, Must Read...

I'm not supposed to be blogging but...

Blogging will resume...

Common Sense On Anti-Depressants

Recommended Reading

Trunk Monkey

A Must Read

Yup